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Ask the Commish.Com 2022 Draft Kit
Those that faded Derrick Henry as a first-round pick in 2021 received suboptimal results. The Tennessee Titans running back led the position in fantasy PPR points per game (23.4) through eight weeks and bested his 2020 2,000-yard campaign by more than 2.5 PPR points per game. The unicorn running back averaged 29.6 touches per game - seven more than the next closest running back before his injury. And although he didn't play again until the postseason, Henry still finished 15th in the NFL in total touches and as the RB20 overall in just eight games played. No running back better depicts the "volume is king" mantra better than the King himself and his guaranteed volume make him near bulletproof. Coming off an injury-plagued season does raise some concerns about whether Henry's body is going to break down because of his insane workload. And the lack of pass-game usage is a detriment to his value in PPR formats. But it's impossible to ignore his workload opportunity in 2022 within a Titans anemic passing offense. They don't have any reason to not feature him and there are no indications that they are going to stop with him due $15M this season. Seems more likely than not they ride Henry did his contract expires before the 2024 season when he hits age 30.
Last year Alvin Kamara showed no signs of slowing down, logging his first 200-plus carry season. In the six full games with Jameis Winston under center, he was the RB5 in fantasy, averaging 23.2 touches and 5.5 targets (26.4% target share). Over that span, he was seventh in targets and sixth in receiving yards among all running backs. Kamara is a top 5-10 option at the running back position.
Joe Mixon was an absolute steal in the second round of fantasy drafts in 2021 based on his easily projected large workload within an ascending offense. The Bengals running back finished the season third in total touches (334) and sixth in touches per game (20.9). Mixon also ranked third in goal-line carries (16) and tied Jonathan Taylor/James Conner in red-zone touchdowns. 2021 was the perfect storm for the fantasy RB3 in half-points scoring coming off a truncated 2020 campaign, and there's reason to believe the positive production will continue in 2022. The Bengals offensive line has been revamped entirely, ensuring that Mixon will be able to repeat his top-10 PFF rushing grade from a season ago. He also flashed upside a receiver down the playoff stretch for the Bengals, averaging nearly six targets per game while running a route on 57% of offensive dropbacks through six games. That route participation would have ranked third among all running backs during the regular season. Mixon fits all the criteria that a fantasy manager would want as a mid-range first round selection in fantasy football. However, he owns the RB7 ADP at 12th overall in early best ball drafts.
Same old song and dance for Dalvin Cook in 2021. The Minnesota Vikings running back was a workhorse when healthy, averaging 22 touches per game (5th) and 15.2 fantasy points per game (RB11). But the market seems to have soured on the consensus No. 2 pick from a season ago, because he missed four games and his production didn't align with his usage. His ADP has fallen to the back of Round 1, and it's unwarranted based on the impending touchdown regression Cook will experience in 2022. His 15 goal-line carries ranked fourth in the NFL last season, but he converted just three into scores. Considering Cook averaged 16 TDs from 2019-2020, his meager 6 TDs from last season look like a blip on the radar.
Austin Ekeler isn't used as a true three-down workhorse, but it's hard to tell based on the actual amount of touches he sees in the Los Angeles Chargers offense. At 5-foot-10 and 200 pounds, Ekeler finished 8th in the NFL in total touches (276) and 14th in touches per game (17.2). But the raw touches hardly showcase the fantasy value Ekeler possesses, because he often commands an extremely high-share of high-value targets ie. targets and red-zone opportunities. His 13.9% target share and 70 receptions ranked second behind only Najee Harris. Ekeler's 18 red-zone touchdowns and 63 red-zone touches ranked first and second respectively. With such a secure role as a receiver out of the backfield and as a featured red-zone weapon in a high-powered offense, it's hard to imagine a healthy Ekeler not returning at least top-5 fantasy status in 2022. He wrapped a bow on the 2021 season as the RB3 in points per game and RB2 overall in half-point scoring.
After playing just a 70% snap share once in 2020, Jonathan Taylor surpassed that number in nine contests in 2021, including eight weeks during the team's last eight games. Taylor also led the NFL in red-zone touches (92), which was not that surprising considering he ranked fifth in that category as a rookie. That elite goal-line usage helped separate Taylor from the pack as the bonafide No. 1 running back in fantasy football. No player came close to sniffing his amount of volume near paydirt. Taylor's 42 carries inside the 10-yard line were 12 more than the next-closest back (Damien Harris, 30). Pairing Taylor's elite red-zone usage with his ascending role as a receiver - 11th in routes run and sixth in route participation in 2021 - makes him worthy of the 1.01 pick across all fantasy formats. No quarterback targeted running backs more than new Colts quarterback Matt Ryan did in 2021 - 8.6 targets per game.
If there is any running back that could potentially de-throne Derrick Henry as the poster child for the "volume is king" mantra, it's Najee Harris. The Steelers rookie running back managed a league-leading 381 touches in 2021, and finished as the RB4 in half-point scoring as a result. The volume he is going to see in 2022 will ensure he is one of the safest running backs available in fantasy football. Still, the issue with Harris pertains to his true upside potential in an potentially capped offense led by a rookie quarterback. An immobile Ben Roethlisberger was a check-down target machine to Harris in 2021 which may not be the case in 2022. And despite all of his total raw touches, Harris only saw 37 touches (22nd) in the red zone and scored six red-zone touchdowns.
We all know the deal with CMC. When healthy, he's easily the best player in all of fantasy football. He played in four games in 2021 with at least a 50% snap share and his PPR fantasy finishes were RB1, RB3, RB4 and RB3. McCaffrey averaged 26 fantasy points per game. Considering the extent of CMC's injuries have not resulted in major surgeries or completely torn ligaments, I like him bouncing back to form in 2022. I like that the Panthers are already putting him in preseason bubble wrap to make sure he's full-go for Week 1. Four of the Panthers' 5 wins last season came when CMC was active and playing.