-2022 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2022 Draft Kit
Entering Year 3, it looked like Courtland Sutton was on the cusp of true elite fantasy WR1 production, but his 2020 season was lost due to a torn ACL in Week 2. It was unclear how productive Sutton would be returning from the devastating knee injury. But to start the 2021 season, the Broncos wide receiver looked like his old self. He averaged 13.8 fantasy points per game (17th) and had a 27% target share in Weeks 2-7 during the regular season. It wasn't until Jerry Jeudy's return from injury that Sutton - and the rest of the Broncos pass catchers - became obsolete in a crowded, run-heavy offense led by a combination of Lock/Teddy Bridgewater. Nevertheless, Sutton finished the season as the fantasy WR46. However, even in the anemic offense, Sutton still finished seventh in air yards (1,756), cemented in between Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, in 2021. Sutton has a real chance to recapture his elite form another year removed from his ACL injury. It also helps substantially that he has received an ultra upgrade at the quarterback position with Denver's trade for Russell Wilson. Wilson has always been an elite downfield passer - he had the sixth-highest passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards last season - which plays heavily into Sutton's strengths as a vertical threat.
Fantasy managers are still trying to figure out what went wrong with Brandon Aiyuk during the first half of last season. He was hyped up after an impressive rookie campaign, but suffered a hamstring injury during training camp that made him unreliable in the starting offense. Through Weeks 1-7, Aiyuk had just one weekly finish inside the top-25. He also averaged an abysmal 0.63 yards per route run - a mark that ranked 98th out of 102 qualifying WRs. Woof. But give credit to Aiyuk for turning his season around during the second half. His yards per route run increased substantially (2.16, 13th) and he averaged 13.1 PPR fantasy points per game as the WR24. If Aiyuk can roll over his second-half production into 2022, he could end up as a smashing fantasy value in a similar way that Deebo Samuel was viewed in 2021.
Darnell Mooney is already a star in the making. The third-year receiver looks primed to cement himself as the Chicago Bears' true No. 1 wide receiver. He already operated as the team's No. 1 for most of the 2021 season, ranking as the WR27 in half-point fantasy scoring through 17 weeks. Mooney also finished the last four weeks of the season ninth in target share (27%) and fifth in route participation (95%). With nobody worth much outside of third-year tight end Cole Kmet as legitimate competition, Mooney should build off his 8th-ranked 24% target share from last season. Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown and 25-year-old rookie Velus Jones Jr. should only encourage targeting the 24-year-old Mooney in 2022 drafts.
David Bell might be my favorite WR to draft from Day 3 of the real NFL draft. He has an awesome landing spot with the Cleveland Browns and quarterback Deshaun Watson . The Browns understand his limitations as an athlete, but his strengths as an underneath wide receiver can help him produce after the catch. Bell finished third in the FBS in receiving yards on the outside (1,097), second in total forced missed tackles (25) and 10th in PFF receiving grade (86.9) among his draft class. He's a perfect fit alongside prototypical No. 1 WR Amari Cooper and the speedy duo of Donovan Peoples-Jones/Anthony Schwartz.
Marquise Brown seems slated for a massive target share in the Arizona Cardinals' pass-heavy offense. Brown posted a top-12 target share last season (23%) with Baltimore. The speedy wideout also commanded a whopping 27% target share back in 2018 at Oklahoma - the last time he played with Murray. Christian Kirk was WR12 during the last four weeks without Hopkins in the lineup. The Cardinals paid a premium to acquire Brown, so fantasy managers should expect them to use him plenty. Brace yourself for Brown to skyrocket up 2022 best-ball rankings as a top-20 fantasy WR option.
It remains to be seen how the Giants new coaching staff is viewing Kadarius Toney heading into Year 2. They were rumored to trade the polarizing wide receiver before the NFL Draft, and the selection of Wan'Dale Robinson early in Round 2 isn't a vote of confidence that is going to see an ultra-expanded role in Year 2. However, what is clear with Toney is the talent. He flashed future target-magnet potential after commanding a 25% target rate per route run in 2021 - tied for 7th best in the NFL in 2021.
Aaron Rodgers trusts Lazard after they have spent the last four seasons together, and their chemistry was on full display over the final 5 weeks of the 2021 regular season. Lazard was the WR8 in PPR scoring on the back of 21 receptions for 290 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Someone on Green Bay will have to replace Davante Adams' elite red-zone production, and Lazard looks to fit the mold at 6-foot-5.
Elijah Moore ranked as the fantasy WR2 over his last stretch of six games played. His 16.1 fantasy points per game would have ranked fifth had he continued the production the remainder of the season. Unfortunately his season was cut short due to injuries and COVID-19 implications. The addition of Garrett Wilson makes Moore's second-year ascension less certain as he did not have much target competition during his scorching finish outside of veteran Jamison Crowder.
Robert Woods was traded to the Titans after the Rams signed Allen Robinson in free agency. The move was less about Woods' ability, but rather his salary cap hit that the Rams were looking to free themselves from. Still, entering his age 30-season fantasy managers should question whether Woods has the juice left to continue producing for fantasy. Often viewed as a safe fantasy WR2 during his time in L.A. - he was WR17 before his injury in 2021 - Woods might be subject to some poor game conditions in the Titans' run-heavy approach that could nuke his weekly fantasy appeal. He's got a chance to be the No. 1 receiver if rookie Treylon Burks fails to hit the ground running, but anything less will not be fruitful for the seasoned veteran. Over the past two seasons, production has not been kind to WRs over 30 years old. Only three receivers over 30 - Cole Beasley, Adam Thielen, and Marvin Jones Jr. - finished as top-40 fantasy options. If he stays healthy, Woods could easily beat his ADP. But I'm just not sure how high his fantasy ceiling is based on the situation.
If Jamison Crowder can just do what Cole Beasley did last season - 82 receptions for 693 yards, WR40 in PPR, WR48 in HPPR - he will vastly out-produce his ADP outside the top-60. Playing in a super pass-heavy offense will allow Crowder the opporuntity to soak up targets underneath, as he has done when healthy for the New York Jets. Just last year, the 29-year old commanded at least five targets in every single game he played without leaving due to injury. In those ten healthy games, the slot receiver averaged nearly five receptions and seven targets per game. Getting back to the possibility of replacing Beasley's production, if Crowder manages to come close to Beasley's 82 receptions, rest assured that he will compile well over the 693 yards that Beasley produced. Beasley was terrible in the YAC category (a big reason why he is gone) -- whereas, Crowder is much better in this area.