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MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2022 Draft Kit
No tight end should make a bigger leap in 2022 than the third-year tight end, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons. But Graham's currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022. Kmet's eighth-ranked route participation and seventh-ranked target share (17%) from 2021 hardly aligns with his fantasy production - no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021. That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game. The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields' mobility - something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC. An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022's breakout tight end. He has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump. Kmet checks off all the boxes for a tight end breakout, and that's exactly why I have him ranked three spots ahead of consensus at TE13.
No rookie tight end flew up the dynasty rankings more than Pat Freiermuth, who made his case as a fringe fantasy TE1 in Year 1. The Pittsburgh Steelers rookie ramped things up in Week 6 after an injury to Eric Ebron and never looked back. Baby Gronk was the TE7 from that time forward, averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game seventh). He would go on to finish the year as the TE13 overall despite running a route on just 56% of dropbacks. When starting and healthy, Freiermuth ran a route on 67% of dropbacks - a rate that would have ranked 15th-highest at the position in 2021. That's the bare minimum usage fantasy drafters should expect to see from the Penn State product with Ebron gone in free agency.
Evan Engram's PFF receiving grade has declined over the last four seasons, bottoming out in 2021 at 54.9 - 40th among 44 qualifying tight ends. And he hasn't disappointed due to a lack of opportunities, either. He finished top-15 in route participation (68%) and had almost zero competition for targets with injuries to Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard. Alas, Engram failed to command any worthwhile target share with his abysmal 14% target rate per route run. So consider me slightly hesitant to buy into Engram breaking out in 2022 because his new head coach has a history of featuring tight ends. Sure, it works in Engram's favor, but last I checked Dan Arnold is still on the team. And Doug Pederson has also been known to heavily feature two tight ends in his offense, which doesn't always translate to fantasy success.
Incoming rookie from Colorado State put on a show in 2021 with 86 catches for 1,017 yards. Nuanced route runner with a knack for making himself available to QBs.
Touted as a potential breakout candidate last summer, Smith missed the entire 2021 season with a torn meniscus. Has the potential to be a significant contributor on a team with a narrow target tree.