Aaron Rodgers may be the consensus #1 fantasy QB among our experts, but that does not mean that he was the unanimous choice. In fact, the QB rankings of our experts -- even the top 10 QBs -- varied wildly.
The variation makes sense for a number of reasons. Health is obviously a concern. Rodgers himself missed considerable time last season. Andrew Luck, D. Watson, C. Wentz -- all of whom made it into our top 12 (signifying that they would serve as "starters" in a 12-team fantasy league) -- finished 2017 on IR. Tom Brady may be the GOAT, but he is now 41 years old and entering uncharted territory -- no QB in modern times has been fantasy relevant at his age. Russell Wilson will have a new supporting cast and will play behind a suspect offensive line. Cam Newton remains a polarizing figure in fantasy, and Drew Brees is himself pushing 40 (will be exactly that in January) and plays in an offense in New Orleans that is becoming increasingly dedicated to the run.
All of which is to say... we ordinarily recommend waiting on QBs in Traditional formats anyway, but the case is even stronger to do so in 2018. There is plenty of uncertainty (even at the top) of this year's fantasy QB class. And the drop-off from one tier to the next is not massive. There is little that separates, for example, our 6th-rated QB from our 16th-rated QB.
We like the sweet spot in the 12-20 range, which is to say that we would not at all be unhappy watching the other 11 owners (in a 12-team league) draft their starting QB and then waited until the later rounds to take our own QB. In that situation, we would be able to fortify the RB and WR positions (as well as possibly the TE position) early in the draft and then take a gander at a QB. After all, fantasy owners could potentially win their league with the likes of Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Jared Goff (all of whom we have possibly going in rounds 8-10) as their weekly starting QB, provided they have more ammunition at the other positions.