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Ask the Commish.Com 2022 Draft Kit
Heading into 2021, Tyreek Hill was a consensus top-three receiver option. But he came in slightly under expectations. The 'Cheetah' wrapped a bow on the year as the WR6 overall and in points per game (14.2). It's worth noting that Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th). Hill's aDOT also dipped dramatically to 10.6, which was the lowest it's been since his rookie season. And It's undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it's hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-5 season with a lesser passer. Especially with Tagovailoa's lack of a confident deep ball, a prominent running game, and Jaylen Waddle also heavily involved in the offensive game plan. Sure, Hill will have his weeks when he is peppered with low-value targets in PPR formats, but the massive downfield touchdowns will happen much less frequently.
Just less than a day after trading Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, the Chiefs have signed his replacement Marquez Valdes-Scantling. It's a three-year deal worth up to $36 million. Essentially the same money that Russell Gage got from the Buccaneers and what Zay Jones got from Jacksonville. The ex-Packers field stretcher has ranked inside the top-5 in yards per reception over the last two seasons, so he will feel right at home catching bombs from Patrick Mahomes. He is sure to experience spiked weeks of production attached to the Chiefs' big-armed quarterback, but valuing him more than a weekly boom-or-bust fantasy WR3/4 would be malpractice. MVS does get a bump up in the WR rankings with a slight upgrade at QB and the opportunity to see a larger target share, but I wouldn't view him too dissimilarly to how he was perceived in Green Bay for the past four seasons. He has never commanded 75 targets in a season. His 2022 wide receiver ranking is comfortably behind JuJu Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore.
St. Brown will look to revive his career with the Bears but until he gets consistent playing time he is not worth rostering.
A healthy Davante Adams has finished no worse than WR5 attached to Aaron Rodgers since 2018, and he ended 2021 third in fantasy points per game at age 29. Adams' high level of play won't stop in Las Vegas, but his fantasy stock does get slightly dented going from Rodgers to Derek Carr. It's unlikely that Carr hyper-targets Adams to the length of a 28% target share as Rodgers has done for so many seasons. Incumbent Raiders pass-catchers Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow represent more target competition than Adams has ever played with since becoming the alpha in Green Bay.
Amari Cooper finished last season 27th in half-PPR per game (11.2), which was in line with his career average. There is hope that he can provide a higher floor as the clear No. 1 wide receiver in Cleveland. And that floor will be accompanied by an extremely high ceiling with Deshaun Watson entrenched under center. The ex-Texans quarterback fueled top fantasy WR finishes for the likes of Brandin Cooks (WR16, 2020) and Will Fuller (WR8/game, 2020) the last time he played. And prior to that, he supplemented DeAndre Hopkins as the fantasy WR4 and WR10 from 2018-2019.
Everything came together for Christian Kirk in 2021 because he was finally used from the slot. Unsurprisingly, Kirk established career highs across the board in targets (112), receptions (83), and receiving yards (1,035) while filling the void left by an injured DeAndre Hopkins. Kirk commanded a 21% target share without Hopkins in the lineup and averaged 13.8 fantasy PPR points per game - a top-10 per-game average. In addition, he finished with the second most receiving yards from the slot among all wide receivers. Kirk should stay kicked iside with the Jaguars after they got little production from that position in 2021. Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault ranked in the bottom 10 with 1.30 yards per route run from the slot. Kirk ranked 13th with 1.80 yards per route run from the slot. He is shaping up to be the new Amari Rodgers for Trevor Lawrence, operating from the inside. At worst, Kirk takes shape as a strong WR3 asset who can elevate to WR2 status quickly with an up-and-coming quarterback.
The Falcons have signed Hodge to a one-year contract. In 16 games with the Lions last season, the 27-year-old recorded 13 receptions on 27 targets for 157 yards. Hodge joins an Atlanta wideout corps currently headed by Olamide Zaccheaus, but the team is far from done in terms of adding depth at the position. With that in mind, it remains to be seen where Hodge settles into the equation for targets, but as things stand, he should have an opportunity to compete for a role in the Falcons offense, which is now helmed by QB Marcus Mariota.
Marquise Brown seems slated for a massive target share in the Arizona Cardinals' pass-heavy offense. Brown posted a top-12 target share last season (23%) with Baltimore. The speedy wideout also commanded a whopping 27% target share back in 2018 at Oklahoma - the last time he played with Murray. Christian Kirk was WR12 during the last four weeks without Hopkins in the lineup. The Cardinals paid a premium to acquire Brown, so fantasy managers should expect them to use him plenty. Brace yourself for Brown to skyrocket up 2022 best-ball rankings as a top-20 fantasy WR option.
The veteran has never played in a pass-happy offense, and that doesn't necessarily project to change too drastically if the Eagles run back their operation ground and pound from a season ago. Still, Brown's talent has yet to hold him back amid a poor situation - WR5 in fantasy points per game in 2020 - and that shouldn't stop in Philly. He will be the alpha dog for the Eagles and remain a fantasy WR1 in 2022 fantasy leagues. Brown finished fourth in yards per route run (2.72) and in target rate per route run (28%) despite battling injuries last season.
Zay Jones played better down the stretch than second-year receiver Bryan Edwards, which earned him a three-year $30 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jones averaged a 25% target share, 10.7 half-point fantasy points per game (27th) and 12.8 expected half-point fantasy points per game (18th) in the team's final five games including playoffs. He also led the team in total air yards (1,136). The former Raider is bound to be overlooked in fantasy despite a strong 2021 finish, so consider me a buyer in the very late rounds and in dynasty. Jones will be a starter on the outside and inherit the wide receiver role previously occupied by Laquon Treadwell. The former first-round pick finished the final six weeks of the fantasy season 10th in receiving yards with 381 - 64 per game. Jones, like Treadwell, also finished the last five weeks top-10 in PFF receiving grade versus man coverage - further bolstering Jones' case as a future playmaker on the boundary.
Gage is coming off a stellar year after posting career-highs in yards per route run (1.96) and PFF receiving grade (76.0) while playing more on the outside. Often thought of as a "slot-only" wideout, Gage split snaps 50/50 from the slot versus outside in 2021. He also led the Falcons with a 29% target share since Week 11 - playing 53% of his snaps for the outside - showcasing his ability to earn passing volume alongside the talented Kyle Pitts Any receiver in a Tom Brady-led offense should be a sought-after commodity - so consider me in on Gage in 2022. There are plenty of scenarios where Gage continues his success from the tail-end of last season.
The Athletic's Vic Tafur believes that Mack Hollins will have a sizeable role in 2022. It's important to denote that his deep-threat profile -- fourth in aDOT (16.7) in 2021 - suggests he will be the team's field stretcher on an offense filled to the brim with elite underneath options between Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller. The subsequent trade of Bryan Edwards further bolsters my take on Hollins carving out that No. 3 receiver role on a high-powered pass-heavy offense. He will never get doubled with all the other weapons on the Vegas offense, making him an extremely appetizing final-round best-ball option, especially in Raiders stacks.
Tate is a long shot to earn a prominent role in the Falcons offense. Like other receivers added by Atlanta this offseason, Tate is big-bodied with some speed. He'll have to either jump more prominent players on the depth chart or get bumped up because of injuries to others. Until one of those things happen, Tate's not worth drafting in Fantasy.
If Jamison Crowder can just do what Cole Beasley did last season - 82 receptions for 693 yards, WR40 in PPR, WR48 in HPPR - he will vastly out-produce his ADP outside the top-60. Playing in a super pass-heavy offense will allow Crowder the opporuntity to soak up targets underneath, as he has done when healthy for the New York Jets. Just last year, the 29-year old commanded at least five targets in every single game he played without leaving due to injury. In those ten healthy games, the slot receiver averaged nearly five receptions and seven targets per game.
Before Robert Woods hit the IR, he was the WR17 in half-PPR scoring per game. Van Jefferson saw elite usage playing on every down as the No. 3 receiver but didn't follow up his playing time with any worthwhile production. Jefferson was WR35 overall on the season and outside the top 40 in points per game despite a top-tier 86% route participation. The likely scenario for Allen Robinson is that he steps up into the No. 2 role behind Cooper Kupp and operates the way Woods started the year and/or by how Odell Beckham Jr. ended the season. Down the playoff stretch, Beckham Jr. averaged a 19% target share and 12.4 fantasy points per game from Week 12 through the divisional round (fantasy WR2).
The 27-year-old wideout played four years for Indianapolis, collecting 150 receptions for 1888 yards and 15 touchdowns. He will reunite with Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni who was the Colts' offensive coordinator from 2018-2020.