-2018 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2018 Draft Kit
If Rodgers is a sleeper, it's because of his QB. Aaron Rodgers (no relation) is the best in the business, and in years when he's had a clear No. 1 tight end, he's usually made that guy fantasy-relevant. Reviewing Richard Rodgers' tape, though, we could not find any exceptional qualities. At 6-foot-4, 257 pounds, he's certainly big, but he doesn't run or jump particularly well, and he won't make anyone miss. The success he had in 2014 usually came when defenses forgot about him while covering more dangerous receivers. That's sure to happen again this year, just not every week.
Seferian-Jenkins signed on with Jacksonville after rejuvenating his career with the Jets last season. Tampa Bay's 2014 second-round pick showed flashes of his playmaking ability during 18 games with the team prior to being waived in 2016. The Jets scooped him up, and Seferian-Jenkins spent the next offseason losing 25 pounds and getting back into football shape. After facing a two-game suspension last season, Seferian-Jenkins posted a career year, with 50 receptions for 357 yards and three touchdowns. Jacksonville operates a run-first offense with a shaky QB situation, so the 25-year-old is best viewed as a back-end TE2.
Burton signed a four-year deal with Chicago after spending the first four years of his career as a situational receiving specialist behind Zach Ertz in Philadelphia. His most productive receiving season was 2016, when he caught 37 balls for 327 yards and one touchdown, though his best fantasy season came last year, when he posted a 23-248-5 line. Burton's 9.8 aDOT was seventh-highest at the position in 2017. He never exceeded 29 percent of the Eagles' offensive snaps in a single season but will surely play a much larger role in Chicago after signing a lucrative deal. Burton has an easy path to targets behind Allen Robinson in what is expected to be a pass-first offense. He's a fringe TE1.
Graham signed a three-year deal with Green Bay during the offseason and, especially with Jordy Nelson out of the mix, the veteran tight end is positioned for a big role in one of the league's top offenses in 2018. Graham paced all tight ends in touchdowns (10) and was second in the entire NFL in end zone targets (19) last season. Graham settled in as a short-area target (7.7 aDOT) last season, which limited him to an extremely low 5.5 yards per target (third-lowest). The 31-year-old has finished top-10 at TE in routes, targets and receptions six of the past seven seasons. Graham is well-positioned for his ninth consecutive top-12 fantasy campaign.
Dickson is now in Seattle for what will be his ninth NFL season. The former Raven and Panther has been a backup throughout most of his career, and his best season came when he managed a 54-528-5 line back in 2011. That was the only season in which Dickson eclipsed 30 receptions or finished better than 34th in fantasy points. Dickson's primary competition for starting duties in Seattle is third-year Nick Vannett, but even if he wins the job, Dickson is unlikely to get close to TE1 production.
The Chargers signed Green as a blocking complement to Hunter Henry, but the former Bronco is positioned for a much larger role after Henry tore his ACL in May. Green has two-way ability, though he has primarily focused on blocking during 100 career games in Denver. Green has run a route on only 28.2 percent of his career snaps and has never caught more than 22 passes in a season. He has four career touchdowns and has never scored more than one in a single season. Green may beat out his previous best fantasy season (40th in 2016), but he's unlikely to come close to TE1 numbers. He's no more than a sleeper in deeper leagues.
Ebron signed with the Colts after an underwhelming four-year stint in Detroit. The No. 10 overall pick in 2014 struggled with injuries and drops while failing to post a single top-12 fantasy campaign during his stint. Ebron appeared in 16 games for the first time last season and posted a career-best No. 13 finish. He has ranked in the top 12 at the position in targets, receptions and receiving yards each of the past two years but benefited from Detroit's pass-heavy scheme. Ebron will face an uphill battle to overtake Jack Doyle as the Colts' top tight end. Ebron is still only 25 years old, but his struggles and lack of a clear path to consistent targets make him no more than a fringe top-20 fantasy TE.
Walford is poised to be the Jets' starting tight end after three underwhelming seasons in Oakland. The 2015 third-round pick enjoyed his best season in 2016, when he posted a 33-359-3 line. His role was drastically reduced in 2017, and he was limited to nine catches for 80 yards on 122 snaps. Walford has yet to manage a top-30 fantasy campaign, but he has a path to every-down duties in New York. He is worth monitoring in leagues that start two tight ends.
Willson has spent most of his five-year career as a backup -- most recently to Jimmy Graham in Seattle -- but the 2013 fifth-round pick has a shot at a much larger role in Detroit in 2018. Eric Ebron is gone, leaving Willson to compete with Michael Roberts and Levine Toilolo for snaps. Willson has never eclipsed 22 catches, 362 receiving yards or four touchdowns in a single season and is a long shot for fantasy relevance even if he starts for the Lions.
Watson had a career year with the Saints back in 2015, and after two years in Baltimore, the 37-year-old tight end is back in New Orleans in 2018. Watson's statistical production has been all over the place throughout his career, but he has posted back-to-back top-11 fantasy campaigns (excluding a 2016 season lost to a torn Achilles). Watson registered a 74-825-6 line and was fantasy's No. 7 tight end in 2015. Last season, he put up 61-522-4 and finished 11th. Watson caught 78 percent of his targets last season (second-best at the position). Watson's role as primary tight end in New Orleans' high-scoring offense certainly puts him on the TE1 radar. He's worth a look late in your draft.