-2025 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
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Ask the Commish.Com 2025 Draft Kit
Last season, De'Von Achnae was the RB5 in fantasy points per game while racking up 305 touches and 1,838 total yards. After a dip in 2024, he returned to being an otherworldly back in terms of efficiency. Among 49 qualifying backs, Achane was first in explosive run rate, 13th in missed tackle rate, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). He was also a key cog in the passing game, ranking second among backs in target share (18.7%), 12th in yards per route run, and fourth in receiving yards. He was fifth in targets among backs with 85. That number is sure to drop this season with Malik Willis in Miami. I don't think he'll be a zero in the passing game, especially considering the receiving depth chart for Miami, but Willis's rushing ability will lead to fewer checkdowns for Achane in 2026. Achane should still be considered an insanely talented RB1 that could lead the NFL in rushing yards this season, but if his receiving work takes a hit, he'll probably lack top 3-5 upside at the position.
Christian McCaffrey came storming back in his age-29 season to finish as the RB1 in fantasy points per game while leading the NFL with 413 touches. He also ranked second in total yards from scrimmage behind only Bijan Robinson. McCaffrey remained amazing through the air, leading backs with a 21.3% target share, 54.4 receiving yards per game, and 0.103 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). After another high-volume season in the bag, and with his age getting close to the danger zone, McCaffrey feels like a risky pick again that could produce league-winning results if he stays healthy. At this point, San Francisco isn't decreasing his workload. They can talk about it all they want yearly, but it's not happening. Outside of the concerns that I've already stated, McCaffrey's declining rushing efficiency is a worry. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, McCaffrey ranked 35th in explosive run rate, 26th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. Those numbers are worrisome, but again, they are thwarted by his volume weekly and his passing game role. McCaffrey could easily post another RB1 overall season in 2026, or he could get dinged up and miss time, thus crushing your team. It's not difficult to see either outcome for this upcoming season.
Last year, Bijan Robinson was the RB2 in fantasy points per game. For most of the season, he was pacing towards a 1,000-yard season for rushing and receiving before tailing off at the end of the season (820 receiving yards). Robinson was also crushed by the heavy usage of Tyler Allgeier near the goalline. Allgeier finished with eight rushing touchdowns, while Robinson had only 11 total touchdowns. Robinson had a pitiful 49.3% red zone rushing share (per Fantasy Points Data). With Allgeier and the previous coaching staff gone, Robinson should enjoy more usage near paydirt in 2026. Robinson was incredibly efficient with his workload last season, which is a reflection of his insane talent. He finished top-three among running backs (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets) in receiving yards per game, target share, yards per route run, first downs per route run, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Robinson is my favorite bet to be the RB1 overall in 2026.
Cook signed a contract extension last off-season and was immediately vaulted into the biggest role of his career. The 2022 second-round NFL draft pick finished in the top five among backs in carries, rushing yards (league-high 1,621), touchdowns and yards per carry (5.25). The one limiting factor in Cook's fantasy output was a minimal receiving role (his 40 targets ranked 26th among RBs), but he still came through with a sixth-place finish in fantasy points. The 26-year-old is set to play the same role in Joe Brady's scheme and will be a candidate for his third straight double-digit touchdown campaign as long as Josh Allen is under center. Consider Cook a mid-range RB1.
Last year was another impressive year for Derrick Henry. He didn't show any signs of slowing down with 307 rushing attempts, 1.595 rushing yards, 16 total touchdowns, and an RB8 finish in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, Henry ranked 16th in yards after contact per attempt and seventh in explosive run rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Henry won't contribute much in the passing game, but that's a given at this point. It doesn't crush his overall production, but it isn't there to help add to his weekly floor. Henry had five games last year as RB25 or lower in weekly fantasy scoring. I still want to invest in Henry as an RB1 again in 2026. If Lamar Jackson can bounce back, Henry could inch back closer to his 2024 production (RB4 in fantasy points per game). He's at worst a low-end RB1 with top-five upside.
I tried to tell people last year, but few wanted to listen. After an insane 2024 season, Saquon Barkley was poised to come back down to earth some in 2025. Well, it happened. Barkley finished with 317 touches and 1,413 total yards as the RB14 in fantasy points per game. Part of this could be traced to natural regression, but also, Barkley had a decent dip in efficiency. In 2024, Barkley had an insane 3.55 yards before contact per attempt, which easily led all running backs (minimum 100 carries, per Fantasy Points Data). Last year, that number fell to 2.11, which was 23rd among 49 qualifying backs, essentially a league-average number. From 2024 to 2025, Barkley's explosive run rate dropped from 7.2% (fourth-best) to 4.6% (20th), and his yards after contact per attempt dipped from 2.26 (35th) to 1.96 (39th). Barkley lived off explosive runs and easily getting into the second level of defenses in 2024, but he found more uphill sledding last year. His volume should finish in the neighborhood of 300 touches with double-digit touchdown upside. That should lock him into top-15 running back status with possible top 5-7 upside if the offensive line can stay healthy and the Eagles' passing attack can also bounce back. If the aerial attack can get right, this team and Barkley will have more scoring opportunities in 2026 (last year, 28th in red-zone scoring opportunities per game).
Jonathan Taylor was the RB4 in fantasy points per game last year, but his season was a tale of two halves. With Daniel Jones (Weeks 1-13), he was the RB2 in fantasy points per game, averaging 21.7 touches and 132.1 total yards. After Jones was out of the lineup (Achilles), Taylor was the RB22 in fantasy points per game with 21.6 touches and 75.4 total yards per game. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, Taylor was 17th in explosive run rate, 28th in missed tackle rate, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Jones is set to return this season, but the big question for Taylor and the Indy offense is how effective he'll be in 2026 coming off the Achilles injury. Taylor should see plenty of volume this season to return top 15-20 production in fantasy, but if you're drafting him with an RB1 price tag, it's fair to wonder if he can be a top three back this season, with his quarterback's play in question. Last year, Taylor was first in snap share, second in opportunity share, fourth in weighted opportunity, and second in red zone touches. I have more questions about his 2026 outlook than most, but he's still a solid pick in 2026, even with the questions about Jones.
Last year, Jahmyr Gibbs finished as the RB3 in fantasy points per game. After Week 10, his usage got a massive bump as he didn't play less than 68% of the snaps in any game for the rest of the season while averaging 20 touches and 114.9 total yards pre game. This stretch of games from Weeks 11-18 also coincided with Sam LaPorta's absence, which increased Gibbs' passing game usage. In Weeks 1-10, Gibbs had a 12.7% target share, 25.2 receiving yards per game, and an 11.1% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). In Weeks 11-18, Gibbs saw a huge increase in work through the air without LaPorta, with a 19% target share, 48.6 receiving yards per game, and a 19.6% first-read share. Gibbs led all running backs in those statistical categories in the final eight games of the season. Gibbs is in the running for RB1 overall for 2026, but if the rest of the weapons for Detroit remain healthy all season, it could be tough for him to do so. I still expect him to be a top-three back this season who is insanely efficient with his passing game and early down work. Last year, he ranked ninth in explosive run rate and third in missed tackles forced per attempt. Gibbs will and should be a top 3-5 pick in every fantasy draft this year.