-2025 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2025 Draft Kit
Jalen McMillan caught fire late in his rookie year, posting five straight games with 51+ receiving yards, racking up 24 catches for 316 yards and 7 touchdowns over that stretch. He earned a 19% target share during that span and looked like a rising star in Tampa Bay's offense heading into 2025. However, the road ahead is far less clear. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both returning - and first-round pick from Ohio State Emeka Egbuka now added to the mix - McMillan faces even steeper competition for targets than he did a season ago.
Higgins got the capital I was hoping for as the fifth wide receiver selected in the NFL Draft at the top of the second round. Higgins should immediately file in as the starting outside receiver opposite Nico Collins. Higgins was an underrated player during the entire draft process after ranking 27th and 16th in yards per route run and first and 18th in receiving grade during his final two collegiate seasons (per PFF). The addition of Higgins and fellow former Iowa State wide receiver Jaylin Noel should push Christian Kirk while also hopefully fueling a big bounce-back season for C.J. Stroud. With Tank Dell likely out for the entire 2025 season, Higgins has a clear path to playing time and should be selected no later than the mid-second round of dynasty rookie drafts.
Pat Bryant's rookie ADP has surged since being selected in the third round by the Denver Broncos, but fantasy managers should approach with caution. The Illinois product was ranked well outside the top tiers of the class pre-draft, and the history of "mid-round reaches" at wide receiver offers more misses than hits. Bryant profiles as a size/speed possession receiver at 6-foot-3, 204 pounds, but he lacks standout athleticism - he ran a 4.61 40-yard dash and didn't break out until age 20. He recorded just one career game with double-digit targets and was actually out-targeted this past season by teammate Zakhari Franklin - who went undrafted. While some may latch onto the idea that Sean Payton sees a "Michael Thomas" archetype in Bryant, the underlying data suggests this is a bet on projection, not production.
Jauan Jennings delivered a surprise Year 5 breakout in 2024, finishing as the WR25 overall with 77 catches, 975 yards, and 6 TDs in an injury-riddled 49ers WR room. From Week 8 on, Jennings averaged over 8 targets per game, a 25% target share, and 13.7 expected fantasy points - fueled by a 33% first-read target rate. He ranked 14th in yards per route run (2.26) and led all 49ers WRs in red-zone targets. With Deebo Samuel gone and Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a torn ACL, Jennings is set up for a major role in 2025. Brock Purdy trusts him, and so does new OC Klint Kubiak, who views Jennings as a true No. 1 option with Aiyuk sidelined.
Wan'Dale Robinson quietly racked up 93 catches in 2024, but his fantasy impact was muted due to just 699 yards and 3 touchdowns - finishing as the WR41 in half-PPR (WR54 in points per game). He earned a strong 22% target share and was top-15 in red-zone targets (17), but a lack of scoring and a shallow average depth of target capped his weekly ceiling. Locked in as the Giants' No. 2 receiver behind Malik Nabers, Robinson remains a high-volume slot option with some sneaky appeal in full-PPR formats, especially if positive TD regression kicks in.
When Josh Downs played with a more capable passer in Joe Flacco during the 2024 season, his production skyrocketed. With Flacco at QB (eight starts), the Colts' slot WR went over his receiving yards prop in 88% of his games. 60-plus receiving yards in seven of the eight games. In the seven true games Flacco started, Downs earned a 26% target share, 9.3 targets per game, and 66.4 receiving yards per game. If the Colts can get any semblance of average QB play between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson, Downs will be a bargain in 2025 fantasy drafts.
Cedric Tillman flashed major second-year breakout potential in 2024, stepping up as the Browns' top wideout after Amari Cooper's departure and Jameis Winston's promotion to QB1. From Weeks 7-12, Tillman averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game (WR16), totaling 330 receiving yards and clearly outproducing Jerry Jeudy during that stretch. Unfortunately, a concussion cut his season short, sidelining him for the final six games. Now fully healthy and with past chemistry with Joe Flacco, Tillman is well-positioned to re-emerge as a key piece in Cleveland's passing game and could be a sneaky value pick in 2025 drafts.
Keon Coleman flashed big-time potential as a rookie, most notably with his 125-yard breakout in Week 7. Prior to a midseason wrist injury in Week 9, Coleman was emerging for Buffalo, averaging over 2.0 yards per route run and posting +136 receiving yards over expected (recYOE) - the third-best mark by a rookie WR through eight weeks since 2018, behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. Now healthy and a projected starter in Buffalo's 3-WR sets, Coleman is slated for a strong Year 2 breakout in an offense looking for playmakers behind Khalil Shakir.
Ricky Pearsall battled through adversity in 2024, returning from a preseason gunshot wound to make his debut in Week 7. He finished as the WR50 in points per game (7.1), matching Brandon Aiyuk's average prior to his ACL tear. Pearsall flashed big-play potential late in the season, posting 14 catches for 210 yards and 2 TDs across Weeks 17-18 while averaging nine targets per game. With Deebo Samuel gone and Aiyuk working back from injury, Pearsall is positioned for a second-year breakout.
Darnell Mooney was a major value in 2024, outperforming his WR69 ADP to finish as the WR28 overall and WR39 in points per game through 17 weeks with over 1,300 air yards and a career-best 1.88 yards per route run. He held a steady 20% target share as Atlanta's WR2 and came just eight yards shy of his second 1,000-yard season. With Michael Penix Jr. taking over at quarterback in 2025, Mooney has room to grow - he posted 5 catches for 82 yards in Penix's debut. Locked into a starting role, Mooney is a strong late-round target with sneaky WR3/FLEX upside.
Jack Bech was one of the most efficient receivers in the 2025 class, leading all rookies in expected points added (EPA) per target - a clear sign that good things happened when the ball was in his hands at TCU. The Raiders took notice, selecting him 58th overall and giving him solid Day 2 draft capital that cements his status as a top-tier rookie WR for fantasy. Bech posted a 28% dominator rating in 2024 and impressed at the Senior Bowl, helping shake the "one-year wonder" label that stems more from circumstance than ability - he began his career at LSU competing with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. With Jakobi Meyers in a contract year and little depth behind him, Bech has a real opportunity to carve out a meaningful role early.
Emeka Egbuka lands in a crowded but intriguing spot in Tampa Bay after being selected 19th overall - a clear sign the Bucs believe in his long-term upside, even with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still on the roster. A polished, reliable slot weapon, Egbuka became Ohio State's all-time receptions leader and broke out as a sophomore after replacing Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2022. While he never truly operated as "the guy" in college, his consistent production alongside NFL-level talent speaks volumes. In the short term, target competition limits his redraft appeal, especially with Jalen McMillan also in the mix. But with both Evans and Godwin over 29 and dealing with durability concerns, Egbuka is one injury away from a clear path to fantasy relevance.