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2023 VIP Draft Kit


Table of Contents


Draft Day Advice
-General Advice
-Position Advice

-2023 NFL Schedule
-Strength of Schedule


QB Statistical Analysis
-2022 Top Performances
-2022 Most Fantasy Points
-2022 Most Avg Fantasy Points
-2022 Median Fantasy Points
-2022 Most Consistent
-Easiest 2023 Schedule
-Easiest 2023 Playoff Schedule

RB Statistical Analysis
-2022 Top Performances
-2022 Most Fantasy Points
-2022 Most Avg Fantasy Points
-2022 Median Fantasy Points
-2022 Most Consistent
-Easiest 2023 Schedule
-Easiest 2023 Playoff Schedule

WR Statistical Analysis
-2022 Top Performances
-2022 Most Fantasy Points
-2022 Most Avg Fantasy Points
-2022 Median Fantasy Points
-2022 Most Consistent
-Easiest 2023 Schedule
-Easiest 2023 Playoff Schedule

TE Statistical Analysis
-2022 Top Performances
-2022 Most Fantasy Points
-2022 Most Avg Fantasy Points
-2022 Median Fantasy Points
-2022 Most Consistent
-Easiest 2023 Schedule
-Easiest 2023 Playoff Schedule

Kicker Statistical Analysis
-2022 Top Performances
-2022 Most Fantasy Points
-2022 Most Avg Fantasy Points
-2022 Median Fantasy Points
-2022 Most Consistent
-Easiest 2023 Schedule
-Easiest 2023 Playoff Schedule

2022 Defense Rankings
-Fantasy Points Allowed (Total)
-Fantasy Points Allowed QBs
-Fantasy Points Allowed RBs
-Fantasy Points Allowed WRs
-Fantasy Points Allowed TEs
-Fantasy Points Allowed Ks

Proven Draft Strategy
-Numerical Analysis
-GCAM (Overview)
-GCAM (QBs)
-GCAM (RBs)
-GCAM (WRs)
-GCAM (TEs)
-GCAM (PKs)
-GCAM (D/ST)

Targets, Carries and Touches
-2022 Most Targets
-2022 Most Carries
-2022 Most Touches

Redzone Analysis
-2022 Redzone Passing
-2022 Redzone Rushing
-2022 Redzone Receiving
-2022 Redzone Touches

Depth Charts
-AFC East
-AFC North
-AFC South
-AFC West
-NFC East
-NFC North
-NFC South
-NFC West

Nagging Injuries
-QBs
-RBs
-WRs
-TEs

Moving Truck Tracker
-QBs
-RBs
-WRs
-TEs

Rookie Report
-QBs
-RBs
-WRs
-TEs
-PKs
-Dynasty/Rookie Snapshot

Sophomore Status
-QBs
-RBs
-WRs
-TEs
-PKs

Fantasy Studs
-QBs
-RBs
-WRs
-TEs
-PKs
-D/ST

Sleepers
-QBs
-RBs
-WRs
-TEs
-PKs
-D/ST

Duds
-QBs
-RBs
-WRs
-TEs
-PKs
-D/ST

Average Draft Position
-Top 150
-QB
-RB
-WR
-TE
-PK
-D/ST
-DL
-LB
-DB

ATC Cheat Sheets
QB Rankings
RB Rankings
WR Rankings
TE Rankings
PK Rankings
Team Defense/Special Teams Rankings
DL Rankings
LB Rankings
DB Rankings
Draft Board Snapshot
Top 200 Players Overall
Top 216 Auction Values

MOCK DRAFT

Ask the Commish.Com
2023
Draft Kit

WR Duds

 

Godwin, Chris - TB

Godwin, Chris

Godwin is expected to take off as a target hog in 2023 with Mike Evans' efficiency dropping off a cliff in 2022 and the lack of target competition outside of him. The case for Godwin rests on his individual target share volume, the fact that the Buccaneers will be throwing often while playing from behind, and the fact that he could have another gear to his game now one year removed from the ACL injury. Godwin finished as a WR2 or better in just four weeks during the 2022 season. If he wants to develop into a more consistent Fantasy asset, Godwin's 99th-highest average depth of target (5.6) has to rise. Godwin projects more as a WR3 in 2023.


LOCKETT, TYLER - SEA

LOCKETT, TYLER

We like Lockett as a No. 3 receiver worth a pick in Round 7 this year. Once again, he'll probably beat our expectations. The 31-year-old has new target competition in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he also has four consecutive years with at least 1,000 yards and five straight years with eight or more touchdowns. Among players with at least 700 career targets, Locket's 9.6 yards per target ranks fourth, behind only DeSean Jackson, Rob Gronkowski, and Julio Jones. Lockett's aDOT has fluctuated wildly the past four years, ranging from 9.7 in 2020 to 14.6 in 2021 back down to 10.6 last year. With Smith-Njigba likely working more in the slot, it could balloon again this year, leading to fewer catches but more big plays.


Higgins, Tee - CIN

Higgins, Tee

Higgins is clearly a big part of the Bengals passing game, but does he have a big enough job to warrant a top-30 pick in Fantasy drafts? Last year, Higgins averaged 13.8 PPR points per game (19th best among receivers) and logged six games with 15-plus Fantasy points and another four with 13-to-14 Fantasy points. That underwhelming consistency is only further concerning when you learn two of the six with 15-plus and two more of the 13-14 point variety came when teammate Ja'Marr Chase was inactive. In fact, since Chase entered the NFL in 2021, Higgins has 10 games with 15-plus PPR points when the two have played together. This doesn't make Higgins a bad Fantasy WR, but it does make reaching for him on Draft Day a potentially bad decision. He's worthy of a mid-Round 3 pick in PPR and a late Round 3 pick in non-PPR.


Pittman Jr., Michael - IND

Pittman Jr., Michael

After finishing as WR16 in 2021, Pittman's value took a hit because of inconsistent quarterback play, and that's putting it politely because it was closer to disgusting than inconsistent, but I'm not here to get hung up on semantics. This "overvalued" designation has nothing to do with Pittman as a player; this is 100% about the situation he finds himself in, yet again, with an inaccurate QB under center. This time he gets this year's No. 4 overall draft pick, Anthony Richardson, throwing him the ball -- which is the one part of Richardson's game that needs the most work. Pittman can overcome a lot of things with his size, but he's going to need some serious help to get back to his days as a top-20 WR. Pittman currently is my WR30.


Samuel, Deebo - SF

Samuel, Deebo

There is a wide range of opinions on Samuel this year, which makes sense because he is one of the most unique players in Fantasy. We all view him as a No. 2 wide receiver who should be drafted somewhere between Round 3 and Round 5. Samuel's production fell from 21.3 FPPG in 2021 (WR3) to 13.0 FPPG in 2022 (WR30). He posted by far his worst yards per route run of his career at 1.69 and scored only two receiving touchdowns despite 94 targets. In nine games with Christian McCaffrey, he averaged 6.9 targets and 3.4 rush attempts per game compared to 7.6 targets and 3.7 rush attempts per game in his breakout season. In other words, if the efficiency bounces back, the volume is still there.


ADAMS, DAVANTE - LV

ADAMS, DAVANTE

We view Adams as a top-six wide receiver who should be drafted early in Round 2 in a majority of leagues. Adams' performance last year with Derek Carr and Jarrett Stidham provided further evidence that he is as quarterback-proof as any receiver in the league, so we aren't concerned about how he will do with Jimmy Garoppolo. If Garoppolo's foot does not heal enough for him to play, and the Raiders enter the year with Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell as the starter, we would have to reconsider just how QB-proof he really is. The other concern with Adams is his age, but that is a bigger concern in Dynasty, where he is a No. 2 receiver now, than it is in redraft. Adams has at least 100 catches and 1,300 receiving yards in four of his past five seasons. He's showing no signs of slowing down.


Watson, Christian - GB

Watson, Christian

Watson's speed combined with his large size and huge catch radius makes his Fantasy profile desirable, but he could be limited by how accurate Jordan Love is in the Packers' retooled offense. Watson caught just three of four targets from Love in 2022 but turned one of them, a short slant off play-action, into a 63-yard catch-and-run touchdown. Those other two receptions went for at least 15 yards each, a promising result even if as a small sample size. Ultimately, Watson is assumed to be the top target-getter in this offense, and even if the quality of targets he'll get isn't like what it was last year, he should still have some jaw-dropping plays. At least, we better hope so: Four of his seven touchdowns as a rookie came on throws of 14 or more Air Yards, tied for ninth-most among WRs. Expect Watson to go between 40th and 50th overall in all leagues.


HOPKINS, DEANDRE - TEN

HOPKINS, DEANDRE

Hopkins is still a free agent as of the time of publication. We're currently ranking him as a borderline No. 2 wide receiver who should be drafted between Round 4 and Round 6 in most Fantasy leagues, but that could change depending on where he lands. While Hopkins does have age and injury concerns, he has remained elite when on the field. His 26.7% target/route rate in 2022 was his best mark since 2017 and his 1.99 yards per route run was only slightly below his career average. If Hopkins lands in a place where he is the clear No.1 with a competent QB, he could still be a top-12 wide receiver. But if he chooses chasing a ring over production, his age and recent injuries won't be the only concern.


Moore, DJ - CHI

Moore, DJ

After five seasons in Carolina, Moore had the best quarterback play during his time in the NFL, and he turned into to a career year. The veteran caught 96 passes for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns on 130 targets. Although the target total was the fourth-highest of his career, he bested his career high in receiving yards by 171 yards, and his eight scores were one more than his previous career-best mark that he set in 2022. He's under contract with Chicago through 2025. With the expectation that Moore will have at least the same level of quarterback play, and possibly an elevated level, the wideout will likely be one of the top receivers selected in 2024 fantasy drafts.




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