-2025 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
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Ask the Commish.Com 2025 Draft Kit
Cooper Kupp's homecoming to Seattle comes with more nostalgia than fantasy upside. The 32-year-old signed a three-year, $45 million deal with the Seahawks after being released by the Rams, who opted to pay Davante Adams rather than keep Kupp around. Injuries have derailed his career since 2022 - including an ankle issue that limited him to 12 games in 2024 - and he averaged just 2.5 catches and 36 yards per game over his final seven contests last season. While Kupp helps fill the veteran void in a post-DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett Seahawks WR room, he's unlikely to thrive in Klint Kubiak's run-heavy offense led by Sam Darnold.
Courtland Sutton thrived in the red zone in 2024, tying for the league lead in end-zone targets and finishing as the WR13 overall (WR23 in points per game). After a rocky start with a rookie QB - including a zero-target game in Week 7 - Sutton rebounded in a big way. Over his final 11 games, he posted eight games with 70+ yards, averaged nearly 15 PPG (WR10 pace), and commanded a dominant 26% target share and 50% air yards share. Bo Nix clearly leaned on Sutton, but with added competition in 2025 from Evan Engram, Marvin Mims, and rookie WR Pat Bryant, his volume grip may loosen. Still, Sutton remains the top option in Denver's passing game with strong WR2 appeal.
Terry McLaurin enjoyed a career-best season in 2024, finishing as the WR6 overall with 82 catches, 1,110 yards, and 13 touchdowns. He thrived with Jayden Daniels under center, finishing as a top-24 WR in 69% of games - tied for third among all wideouts. However, McLaurin's breakout was driven by elite touchdown efficiency, as he nearly doubled his expected TD output per PFF. Despite the strong production, he posted just a 21% target share (37th) and ranked outside the top-30 in targets per game. With Deebo Samuel added and Zach Ertz still lingering, TMC might not be a target monster in 2025. If his TD rate regresses, McLaurin could be overvalued at his draft cost.
Brandon Aiyuk's 2024 season unraveled quickly. After a training camp holdout and securing a four-year, $120 million extension, he struggled mightily, averaging just 7.1 fantasy points per game (WR61) with only one game over 50 yards. Things got worse when he tore his ACL and MCL in mid-October, putting his Week 1 status for 2025 in doubt. Given his poor performance after missing time last year, expectations should be tempered early on.
DeVonta Smith's 2024 season was a tale of two roles - thriving when others were hurt, but fading when the offense was at full strength. He posted career lows in receptions, yards, and targets but salvaged value with a career-high 8 TDs, finishing as the WR30 overall and WR23 in points per game (13 games). However, in eight games with both A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert active, Smith averaged just 8.3 fantasy points (WR51). When one missed time, he jumped to 14.7 points per game (WR8).
Garrett Wilson hit career-highs across the board in his third season, totaling over 100 catches for 1,104 receiving yards and 7 TDs. The Jets' undisputed No. 1 WR finished as the WR11 in half-PPR despite fending off top-tier competition in the form of Aaron Rodgers' best friend, Davante Adams. With both Adams and Rodgers gone in 2025, Wilson is firmly back atop the Jets' targeting pecking order with little competition behind him for targets. Justin Fields is Wilson's new starting QB, and they were former teammates at Ohio State. Expect Fields to force feed Wilson to another 140-plus target season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in 2024 with a WR10 finish in half-PPR, tallying 100 catches, 1,130 yards, and 6 TDs. Even with Seattle emphasizing a run-heavy, defense-first approach under Klint Kubiak, Smith-Njigba still projects as the offensive centerpiece in the passing game - especially with Sam Darnold under center. Darnold's history of hyper-targeting receivers (tunnel vision) and lack of competition behind JSN (aging Cooper Kupp and fringe depth) bodes well for target volume. Smith-Njigba posted six games with double-digit targets (18.4 ppg). He's a low-end WR1 candidate heading into 2025.
Zay Flowers built on a strong rookie year with a 1,000-yard sophomore campaign, finishing as the WR24 in total points (WR33 per game). He maintained a 25% target share (12th among WRs) and saw a major jump in efficiency, ranking 13th in YPRR (2.25) and 7th from Week 5 onward (2.57). Flowers averaged 11.5 points and 74 receiving yards per game during that stretch and remains Lamar Jackson's clear No. 1 option. With better touchdown luck in 2025, Flowers could easily take another leap into the high-end WR2 tier entering his third season.