-2024 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
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Ask the Commish.Com 2024 Draft Kit
Tyler Lockett faced inconsistency throughout the season, finishing 43rd in points per game and WR33 overall, despite a solid 22% target share and over 1,300 air yards. It was his first time outside the top 30 WRs since 2017, failing to match or exceed D.K. Metcalf's fantasy production. With concerns about his age and declining performance, coupled with competition from emerging talents like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Lockett's fantasy value is on a downward trend entering his age-32 season.
Courtland Sutton's outlook for the upcoming season appears less promising, especially with a rookie QB in 12th overall pick Bo Nix. While Sutton saw a resurgence in touchdown production last year, accounting for a significant portion of his fantasy points, it's unlikely to repeat, projecting him in the 4-6 TD range. His target usage parallels Jerry Jeudy's, who has since been traded, solidifying Sutton's role as the team's top WR. Despite competition from Marvin Mims and rookie Troy Franklin, Sutton's consistent WR3 performance suggests a stable floor in fantasy.
Stefon Diggs faced a challenging 2023 season, finishing as WR10 overall but averaging just 13 points per game, landing him as WR15 in half-point scoring. His performance waned significantly from Week 10 onwards, averaging a mere 7.3 points and 42 receiving yards per game. Despite maintaining a near 30% target share and accumulating over 1,800 air yards for the season, Diggs struggled to deliver consistent fantasy production. With uncertainty surrounding his role in the Texans' offense and competition from Tank Dell and Nico Collins, fantasy managers may approach Diggs with caution entering his age 31 season.
Many will point to the injuries Cooper Kupp has dealt with throughout the season, as a reason to be concerned about him moving forward. He hasn't looked like himself all season and he will be 31 in 2024. He's missed an average of six games over the last two seasons. A lot of his production was salvaged by his 5 receiving TDs. Posted a career-low yards per route run (1.77). Kupp was WR27 in points per game in 2023 despite a 26% target share.
Keenan Allen had a stellar 2023 season, ranking third in points per game and finishing as the WR8 overall, thanks in large part to his impressive 31% target share. Despite turning 32 in 2024, he displayed no signs of slowing down with Justin Herbert. However, his trade to the Bears presents new challenges, particularly with a downgrade in rookie QB play and stiff competition for targets from players like Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore. This shift in situation, coupled with Allen's age, raises concerns about his fantasy outlook for the upcoming season.
Christian Watson's sophomore season was completely derailed by hamstring injuries. He missed the first three weeks of the season entirely and struggled to put together any consistent production until his last three games in the regular season when he hurt his hamstring again. He scored four TDs, while averaging 17.1 points per game. Watson has a high ceiling when healthy as both a big-play and red-zone threat, but it cannot be realized until he solves his hamstring woes. Offseason reports have been positive regarding Watson's hamstring, providing some hope that he can put it together in Year 3 and recapture his rookie form that saw him post fringe fantasy WR1 numbers.
Adam Thielen's 2023 season provided the full-body experience of an older veteran WR with zero competition for targets. He started out of the gates red hot, as the WR11 overall through 11 weeks, scoring fantasy points per game at a top-15 rate at 13.7. But alas the 33-year-old could not continue his production with shoddy QB play from his rookie QB. WR51 from Weeks 12-18. Woof. With 103 receptions (10th) on 137 targets (25% target share, 14th), Thielen racked up 1,014 receiving yards, averaging 9.8 yards per reception, and notched 4 touchdown receptions running the 5th-most routes in the NFL. He ended the season with a 10.6 points per game average, securing him as the 25th overall wide receiver in half-PPR scoring. WR31 per game. He's under contract until 2026 and will be entering the offseason as the Panthers' No. 1 WR until they add more WRs in the draft/free agency - the latter of which will likely happen based on the Panthers' interest before this past year's trade deadline.
Calvin Ridley caught 76 passes on 136 targets for 1,016 yards in his lone season as a Jaguar. With nearly 1,800 air yards, he boasted a 22.5% target share and 36% air yards share, finding the end zone 8 times. He ranked as WR17 overall (11.3 points/ game, WR26) positioning him as a low-end WR2 in fantasy. Ridley led the league in end zone targets (24) but fell short of fully capitalizing on his elite opportunities for a fantasy WR1 season. Now with the Titans alongside veterans DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Boyd, he enters a potentially more pass-centric offense under new head coach Brian Callahan and second-year QB Will Levis, offering opportunities for increased production.