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   ADP: Stock Down

October 21, 2018
Al Lackner
Stock Down 8/8/2018
As we enter the first week of preseason football, I would like to start taking a weekly look at the ADP stock-down corner. For our first installment, we will take a look at the ADP as of today (August 9th) versus where the ADP was for players prior to the opening of training camps in late July.

This particular list can be seen as handy in that it identifies players, whose value has slipped in recent weeks due to a variety of factors -- not all of which are legitimate. These players range from those where were considered draftable a few weeks ago but are no longer draftable -- to players who were potential early-to-mid-rounders who have slid a round or more in fantasy drafts.

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold: Pre-training camp ADP: 143, Current ADP: 156.
So there is good news/bad news on the Darnold-as-starter front in Jets-land. The good news is that the 3rd overall pick of the 2018 draft has finally reported to training camp -- and has reportedly looked pretty good in the early goings. Of course, the late start to training camp (because of a contract dispute), puts him further behind the learning curve. That is not great news for his prospects as a starter heading into 2018 with both Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater currently ahead of him on the depth chart. The expectation is that McCown will serve as a mentor -- and de facto starter if neither Bridgewater nor Darnold show anything in the preseason. If healthy, though, Bridgewater has the talent to push for the starting job as well.

Jameis Winston: Pre-training camp ADP: 124, Current ADP: 130.
This is tied directly to the 3-game suspension. The fact that the suspension has been upheld since the previous ADP -- and we now know with certainty that Winston will be sitting out the first 3 games of the season -- is why his stock took a bit of a hit.

Eli Manning: Pre-training camp ADP: 148, Current ADP: 154.
Eli continues to get little in the way of loving in fantasy circles, which is whey we still see him as a potential buy-low candidate. At 154 that is the 13th round of 12-team fantasy drafts, which makes for a nice landing spot as a solid backup QB in fantasy. With a likely better running game to keep defenses honest, some better luck in the health department at WR -- not to mention better coaching as well -- Eli could very well flirt with 4,000 yards and 25+ TD passes this season.

Running Backs

Cameron Artis-Payne: Pre-training camp ADP: 230, Current ADP: 362.09.
I am not sure why Artis-Payne was ever viewed as a draftable commodity in fantasy -- even a couple of months back. He's never done anything to make us believe that he will see more than 1-2 touches per game.

Tommy Bohanon: Pre-training camp ADP: 261, Current ADP: 392.09.
In his 5 seasons in the league, Bohanon remains has amassed a whopping 17 carries and 11 receptions. That is 28 total touches in 5 years. Unless your league awards fantasy points for an occasional lead block, stay away.

Brandon Bolden: Pre-training camp ADP: 262, Current ADP: 393.09.
The vast majority of Bolden's 2018 fantasy production -- all 8 points of it -- came in the Patriots' meaningless regular season finale, when backups and role players saw extended playing time. The Patriots' running back situation is always worthy of caution -- but if you must roll the dice on a member of their backfield in fantasy, Bolden is NOT the guy.

Kapri Bibbs: Pre-training camp ADP: 255, Current ADP: 385.09.
The Redskins' ball carrier ended the 2017 regular season on a roll, proving to be fantasy relevant in each of the final three games. His stock has taken a hit for a couple of reasons: the drafting of Guice and a minor bruised knee situation. The fact that Bibbs is considered day-to-day likely means that the injury isn't anything too serious, but the tailback will need to get back on the field sooner rather than later as he is fighting with three other running backs for what may be just one open spot on the Redskins' final roster.

Alfred Blue: Pre-training camp ADP: 259, Current ADP: 389.09.
Are you my boy, Blue? Don't laugh. Believe it or not, Alfred Blue is listed as the No. 2 running back on the Texans' training camp depth chart. It's a surprise to see Blue listed ahead of D'Onta Foreman, though obviously Foreman is coming off an Achilles tear and may not be ready for Week 1. A career plodder, Blue won't be an enticing handcuff for starter Lamar Miller.

Mack Brown: Pre-training camp ADP: 287, Current ADP: 415.09.
If loading your roster with guys that average about 1 touch per game is your cup of team, may we submit for your approval, Mack Brown.

Wide Receivers

Quincy Adeboyejo: Pre-training camp ADP: 214, Current ADP: 347.09.
This is a classic case of fantasy leveling during the off-season. It is hard to imagine a guy who has never caught a pass in the NFL ever having been considered draftable in fantasy.

Carlton Agudosi: Pre-training camp ADP: 215, Current ADP: 348.09.
Ditto comments above.

Marcell Ateman: Pre-training camp ADP: 232, Current ADP: 364.09.
The Raiders took a flier on Ateman in the 7th round of the NFL draft this past April. History has not shown that rookies who were 7th round draft picks typically make an impact in fantasy. Even in deep Dynasty leagues it is difficult to imagine Ateman being draft-worthy.

Dres Anderson: Pre-training camp ADP: 225, Current ADP: 357.09.
Yes, we too are excited about the return of Andrew Luck in 2018. However, this dude is entering his 4th year in the league and has yet to catch a pass in a game.

KJ Brent: Pre-training camp ADP: 277, Current ADP: 408.09.
Ditto above -- only, Brent is entering his 3rd year in the league.

Daniel Braverman: Pre-training camp ADP: 273, Current ADP: 404.09.
Braverman may have been prematurely placed on the Mahomes hype train. As that has died down, so has projection for a receiver who has failed to catch a pass entering his 3rd year in the league.

Tight Ends

Luke Willson: Pre-training camp ADP: 157.04, Current ADP: 236.82.
I think this one boils down to regression to reality. When the Lions cut Eric Ebron and ostensibly replaced him with Willson, there was much optimism in fantasy circles. Willson is the clear-cut starter; he also a local boy who grew up a Lions fan. Sleeper talk surfaced, as Willson had been productive at times in Seattle but was overshadowed by Jimmy Graham. The Lions seemed to focus on using Ebron a lot more last year, so it makes sense that Willson could be set for the biggest role of his career. That said, we are still talking about a guy that is unlikely to be anything more than a bye week fill-in at the TE position for fantasy.

Jerell Adams: Pre-training camp ADP: 211, Current ADP: 345.09.
It is hard to fathom that a guy who is a backup TE on a team with an established young starter was ever deemed draftable in fantasy.

Braedon Bowman: Pre-training camp ADP: 267, Current ADP: 399.09.
When news of Hunter Henry's injury hit, fantasy owners went scurrying for the Chargers' depth chart at TE and came upon the name Braedon Bowman. That explains his near-draftable status a few weeks ago. But further research revealed that Bowman spent all of last season on the practice squad, and appeared in just three games for the New York Jets in 2016 before injuring his ACL. That said, with the Chargers needing some of their young tight ends to step up and Rivers loving to employ pass-catching TEs, Bowman is a name to watch during training camp and preseason action.

Stephen Anderson: Pre-training camp ADP: 226, Current ADP: 358.09.
The good news? First, the Texans' schedule is the most favorable against fantasy tight ends. Second, Anderson had a few solid performances last year, including a five-catch, 79-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Titans in Week 13. The bad news?The team has yet to settle on a starter with Ryan Griffin and rookie Jordan Akins in the mix.

Jace Amaro: Pre-training camp ADP: 223, Current ADP: 335.09.
Amaro was a 2nd round pick for the Jets back in 2014, who failed to pan out. Since his rookie season he has made a grand total of just 3 regular season appearances and was a healthy scratch for the Titans most weeks in 2017 prior to getting cut and picked up by the Chiefs earlier this year. Move along, nothing to see here.

Dwayne Allen: Pre-training camp ADP: 221, Current ADP: 353.09.
Here is a guy who has failed to make the most of some fantastic opportunities. First, playing TE for Andrew Luck in Indy and then Tom Brady in New England. Now word is that Allen may have to restructure his contract -- or get cut by the Pats. Allen is due $5 million this season but the Patriots would have no dead cap space if they outright released the 28-year-old. In the wake of Julian Edelmann's suspension, the Patriots desire a solid pass-catching TE to fortify what Gronk brings to the table. Allen -- a blocker first -- is not that guy.

Kickers

Randy Bullock: Pre-training camp ADP: 292, Current ADP: 420.09.
Bullock is the definition of a journeyman kicker. He has bounced around the league the last few years and was effective for the Bengals last season, converting 18 of 20 FGA and 31 of 33 EXPAs. His fantasy stock took a dive in recent weeks, though, as Jonathan Brown enters training camp as a competitor. Can Brown provide legitimate competition?, Probably not -- Bullock appears to be the favorite to win the job, but there are certainly better kicking options out there in fantasy.

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