Ask The Commish.com - Power Rankings

As many of you already know, the NCAA uses a method very different than that of the NFL to designate its annual champion. More specifically, the BCS statistical rating system determines which teams play in the National Championship game, and which are eligible to participate in Bowl Championship Series games. For years this system has been quite controversial, as it took a mathematical genius to comprehend the calculations involved in coming up with this statistical rating. The original system included five components: the AP and USA Today/ESPN polls, computer rankings, strength of schedule, team record and a quality win factor.

Much of the criticism of this formula centered on the over reliance on what some would say are meaningless numbers in identifying the college champion. Two years ago, for example, USC, thought by many to be the best team in college football, was left out in the cold. Thus, for the 2004 season, a new formula was devised. In the new formula, the polls are much more heavily emphasized. Instead of a primary focus (75%) on numbers, only three, equally weighted components remain: The AP poll, the Coaches' poll and the computer ratings. The two subjective (human) polls, which once represented a combined 25 percent of the old formula, now make up 66 percent of the new formula. In this way, the No. 1 team in the polls is almost assured a spot in the BCS title game. That is indeed what happened last year with USC rightfully winning the championship.

As this new formula was unanimously approved by the 11 Division I-A commissioners, Notre Dame athletic director Kevin White, the BCS Athletic Director Advisory Committee and the Presidential Oversight Committee, hopes are high that it will present a fairer ranking calculation. With that in mind, the think tank at Ask The Commish.Com begs the question: What if the NFL were to use a similar system, rather than the current seeding-by-division system that the NFL currently uses?

To answer that question, we’ve accumulated the weekly polls provided by ESPN, Fox Sports, CBS Sportsline, CNN/SI, as well as our own weekly-published Power Rankings. We then calculate an average ranking from these polls, using a method similar to the manner in which the BCS handles the AP and Coaches Polls. That is, in reviewing the 5 sources, we eliminate potential outliers by throwing out the lowest and highest ranking for each team. For example, if a team receives the following rankings:

Commish: 2
ESPN: 1
FOX Sports: 3
CBS Sportsline: 2
CNN/SI: 3

Then, we would drop the highest ranking (ESPN’s 1) as well as the lowest (either FOX Sports’ 3 or CNN/SI’s 3), leaving us with three rankings to average (Commish’s 2, CBS Sportsline’s 2, and either FoxSports or CNN/SI’s 3). This team’s average ranking would then be 2.333. All 32 teams are then ranked in order of these averaged rankings in order to provide and Overall Poll. This Overall Poll counts 66% toward the “BCS” Ranking of all the NFL teams. (Note: that we do NOT drop the Commish’s ranking, even when it exists as an outlier. Maybe that skews numbers somewhat, but – hey, this is our website and our formula, right?)

Next, we asked Senior Editor and resident number cruncher/statistical guru, Al Lackner, to come up with his own formula to take the place of the BCS’ Computer Ranking. The formula that Al came up with (which we shamelessly refer to as the Lackner Quotient) weighs the following factors: each team’s actual record, strength of schedule, quality wins, point differential, and home versus road contests in order to determine an overall “Computer Ranking”. This Computer Ranking comprises the remaining 33% of the “BCS” Ranking of all the NFL Teams.

Listed below is the overall ranking provided by this schema. While we are not advocating that the NFL switch to such a system, it is interesting to see how the teams fit into such a ranking system, compared to how they would fare in the NFL’s current standings. If nothing else, it would give some second place teams in tough divisions the edge over first place teams in the weaker divisions.

NFL Rankings

Broncos (13-3), Last Week: 1

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
20	3	2	3	2

Overall Poll:2

Computer Ranking: 1

Colts (14-2), Last Week: 2

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
5	1	1	1	1

Overall Poll:1

Computer Ranking: 5

Bengals (11-5), Last Week: 4

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
24	4	3	6	8

Overall Poll:4

Computer Ranking: 3

Seahawks (13-3), Last Week: 3

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
8	2	6	2	3

Overall Poll:3

Computer Ranking: 6

Chargers (9-7), Last Week: 5

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
3	6	4	7	10

Overall Poll:5

Computer Ranking: 2

Giants (11-5), Last Week: 6

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
4	9	5	9	5

Overall Poll:7

Computer Ranking: 4

Jaguars (12-4), Last Week: 7

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
7	8	8	4	6

Overall Poll:7

Computer Ranking: 6

Bears (11-5), Last Week: 9

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
21	7	11	5	4

Overall Poll:6

Computer Ranking: 12

Panthers (11-5), Last Week: 10

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
22	5	10	8	9

Overall Poll:9

Computer Ranking: 10

Cowboys (9-7), Last Week: 11

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
6	14	12	15	11

Overall Poll:12

Computer Ranking: 10

Chiefs (10-6), Last Week: 12

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
28	10	7	11	14

Overall Poll:10

Computer Ranking: 16

Steelers (11-5), Last Week: 8

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
9	13	13	12	7

Overall Poll:12

Computer Ranking: 12

Patriots (10-6), Last Week: 13

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
1	12	19	14	15

Overall Poll:14

Computer Ranking: 8

Buccaneers (11-5), Last Week: 15

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
12	11	15	10	12

Overall Poll:11

Computer Ranking: 18

Vikings (9-7), Last Week: 17

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
14	15	17	13	16

Overall Poll:15

Computer Ranking: 12

Redskins (10-6), Last Week: 20

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
11	17	9	17	21

Overall Poll:17

Computer Ranking: 8

Falcons (8-8), Last Week: 14

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
31	16	18	16	13

Overall Poll:15

Computer Ranking: 17

Eagles (6-10), Last Week: 16

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
15	20	16	18	17

Overall Poll:18

Computer Ranking: 15

Dolphins (9-7), Last Week: 22

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
32	18	21	19	19

Overall Poll:19

Computer Ranking: 19

Raiders (4-12), Last Week: 18

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
26	21	14	23	20

Overall Poll:21

Computer Ranking: 21

Rams (6-10), Last Week: 19

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
30	19	28	20	18

Overall Poll:20

Computer Ranking: 27

Browns (6-10), Last Week: 21

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
13	23	23	26	23

Overall Poll:23

Computer Ranking: 23

Cardinals (5-11), Last Week: 23

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
17	24	25	24	24

Overall Poll:24

Computer Ranking: 21

Bills (5-11), Last Week: 24

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
23	22	27	22	22

Overall Poll:22

Computer Ranking: 30

Packers (4-12), Last Week: 25

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
2	29	20	28	29

Overall Poll:29

Computer Ranking: 19

Ravens (6-10), Last Week: 26

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
29	25	24	21	28

Overall Poll:25

Computer Ranking: 29

Lions (5-11), Last Week: 27

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
19	28	26	29	27

Overall Poll:27

Computer Ranking: 26

Titans (4-12), Last Week: 28

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
10	26	22	25	25

Overall Poll:26

Computer Ranking: 32

49ers (4-12), Last Week: 30

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
25	30	32	31	30

Overall Poll:30

Computer Ranking: 24

Saints (3-13), Last Week: 29

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
18	27	29	27	26

Overall Poll:28

Computer Ranking: 30

Jets (4-12), Last Week: 31

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
27	31	31	30	31

Overall Poll:31

Computer Ranking: 25

Texans (2-14), Last Week: 32

Commish	ESPN	FOX	CBS	CNN/SI
16	32	30	32	32

Overall Poll:32

Computer Ranking: 28

Schedule

Week 1
WAS vs NYG
NYJ vs MIA
HOU vs PIT
DET vs ATL
TB vs NO
DAL vs CLE
ARI vs SF
MIN vs GB
CIN vs BAL
KC vs NE
JAC vs TEN
SEA vs BUF
STL vs PHI
CAR vs SD
CHI vs IND
DEN vs OAK
Entire NFL Schedule

Power Rankings

Statistical Power Rankings

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