Philosophy/Draft Strategy:

For years I was steadfast in my philosophy to grab two stud RBs in the first two rounds and wait on QB and WR to find value. Okay, there were a few years that snuck in there in my last 20 years of playing Fantasy Football that I would grab say, Peyton Manning at the end of round 1. However, I would then be sure to grab two RBs the next two rounds. As for this year, well, times are a-changing my fellow Fantasy Football friends. With more and more teams heading to a RBBC the days of the two stud RB theory may be over.


Now that the NFL is a QB league, both QBs and WRs value are on the rise. I went into this draft expecting to decide between at least two of the following: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning or Andre Johnson at the 8th spot. With Brees and Rodgers already off the board, I decided that there would be value in grabbing Andre Johnson, who is widely regarded as the best bet at WR, just ahead of Moss. Now to be fair, this is the first time I drafted a WR in round 1 since Jerry Rice and Carl Pickens were in their hey-day. Back then I grabbed them in that order with the 12th and 13th picks. That was quite a few blue moons ago!


The first thing I do while preparing for a draft is to take notice of league the rules and rank players accordingly. Our league is a typical 12-team, yardage+TD league, which allows you to start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, and 1 DEF. One point is awarded for every 10 yards rushing/receiving and one point is awarded for every 25 yards passing. QBs are rewarded 4 pts for TD passes and 6 pts are awarded for each TD scored rushing/receiving. Keep in mind, with the requirement to start 3 Wide Receivers the value of that position is a bit more inflated than most leagues. Lastly, this is a best ball format (your starting lineup is decided after the week based on the highest scoring player(s) at their roster at each respective position). This means that I don’t have to set my lineup every week.


The next thing I do while preparing for my draft is to take notice of my competition. There are no cupcake owners in this league, which makes it tough to come out of the draft head and shoulders above the best. It also makes a pretty even keeled regular season with a bunch of middling teams shooting it out the last week for a playoff berth.


I actually refresh myself on other owner’s tendencies, but the best part is that I actually take notice of their tendencies during the draft and have a pretty good memory from year to year. After many years of drafting against the likes of Mark Cacko, Bryan Hughes, and Al Lackner, I have a good understanding of their draft philosophy. Typically, Al will pick 2 RBs in the first two rounds. Bryan will get a stud QB, RB, and WR in the first three rounds. Mark will typically grab a RB in round 1 and the best available player in round 2 (sometimes a QB or WR) and then a RB in round 3. Well, this pretty much held true, except Bryan didn’t grab his first RB until round 4 as Randy Moss and Miles Austin presented themselves in rounds 2 and 3 respectively.


As for the rest of the league, Richard is always competitive as he has sound draft strategy. Dewey always finds some nice studs and hits on a couple of sleepers every year. Tim is always dangerous because he’ll take a flyer on at least one RB and one WR that cashes in big-time. Chris must have been looking at my Cheat Sheets because he always seemed to draft the guy I had pegged in the odd numbered rounds. Jackson is like a chip off the old block (your’s truly, but is still a young Padawan). Mike is always in playoff contention thanks to his theory of drafting value and sticking to his draft board. Finally, Michele and Kevin were a bit of a wild card for me this year as they’re new to the league.


After taking Andre Johnson at 8, I figured for sure Randy Moss would be gone by the time the 17th pick came around, however, that was not the case. This caused some slight indecision for a few moments. My second round pick saw me skip over Randy Moss, my top player on the board, for one of my targeted RBs that I feel is worthy of consideration as a late first rounder, Ryan Grant. Keep in mind that Grant notched 11 TDs last year and finished the season with 1200+ yards rushing for the second straight year.


In the third round I was eyeing Tony Romo, however he was scooped up 3 picks ahead of me (thanks Chris). This meant that the top 6 QBs on my board were gone and that since the next few QBs on my draft board were in the same tier, so I went with the best available RB. Even though Stewart is Williams’ backup, he should be able to net me 1000 yards and double-digit TDs. As the fourth round approached I admit that I panicked a bit for a QB and drafted Eli Manning too early. I had the likes of Sidney Rice and Steve Smith ranked clearly ahead of Manning, with guys like Rivers, Kolb, Flacco, Palmer, Ryan, only slightly behind Eli I should have taken the WR and looked at drafting a QB in the next round or two.



Draft Observations:

1. Three QBs (Brees, Rodgers, and Manning) and 1 WR (Andre Johnson) were drafted in round 1. This means that landing one of the top 6 QBs (Brady, Schaub, and Romo) is difficult unless you draft them by the early portion of the third round.
2. Here’s a few picks that surprised me:
• Ryan Mathews was selected as a first round pick. The kid has a ton of upside, but Darren Sproles is still there and if Vincent Jackson doesn’t show defenses may be more inclined to crowd the line of scrimmage
• I was surprised to see Matt Schaub drafted before Tom Brady at the end of the second round.
• Jahvid Best was selected 40th overall. He’s lightning fast and could be this year’s Chris Johnson, or he could be Darren McFadden of two years ago. We shall see.
• Pierre Garcon was the 21st WR selected and was drafted ahead of perennial sure thing WR Hines Ward.
• Jermichael Finley is a hot TE target in many leagues. He was drafted in the 5th round as the 5th fantasy TE, 6 picks ahead of my selection of Tony Gonzalez.
• Dez Bryant was drafted with the 98th pick, the 33rd WR off the board. Being that he’s going to miss the rest of the preseason, this was perhaps too early of a flier.
• The Defensive team run. Picks 119 – 130 saw 9 Defensive teams drafted. Now that’s a run!
• Jordan Shipley was drafted. The Bengals are loaded with weapons with Ochocinco, T.O., Antonio Bryant, and last year’s slot WR, Andre Caldwell. Shipley is seemingly battling for a spot as a slot WR in the Bengals offense, so it was a real surprise to see him drafted. Dewey does this every year, he’ll draft two guys that make you scratch your head, but he’ll hit on one of them.

3. Fantasy owners are a bit afraid of the unknown or risks. Sidney Rice slipped due to a hip injury and ol’ #4’s uncertain return. Speaking of ol’ #4, Brett Favre was drafted as a middle-tier backup. Vincent Jackson was drafted as a marginal 3rd WR due to his suspension and holdout. Knowshon Moreno fell to the 40th pick due to his injury. Jamaal Charles fell to pick 42 due to Thomas Jones’ presence. Marion Barber fell to the 49th pick due to the three-headed monster in Dallas. Carnell Williams fell to a marginal 3rd RB due to his continual injuries. Thomas Jones was drafted at pick 110 due to Jamaal Charles.



My Biggest Reach:
I might have drafted Eli Manning a bit too soon at pick 41 as the Giants are planning on throwing the ball less this year. Still, with Nicks, Steve Smith, Manningham, and now Boss coming on, I felt that Manning could approach 3900 yards with 25+ TDs. While I liked this production, I should have kept in mind that Kolb or Flacco also have a chance to put up similar numbers and they were drafted between picks 75-77 another two rounds later.


Another reach might have been Santonio Holmes. With a 4-game suspension in store, him playing in a more run-oriented offense, and with competition at the WR position I should have probably drafted a RB instead. I had Justin Forsett on the radar to draft, but I had just a bit of concern over Welker’s healthy return so I was looking for a WR with upside. The problem is that Holmes will miss the first 4 games of the season. While Welker could play, he might not be at 100% to start the season. That could leave me with some unproven WRs needing to step up early in the season. That is a tremendously risky proposition.


My Best Value:

I am happy with the value I found with Wes Welker. I still have Welker penciled in as a top 15 WR. While his injury is risky, he was on pace to record 150 catches last year. Now I know that this is not a PPR league and that Welker only registered 4 TDs, but he has potential to finish with top 12 WR numbers.



Who Had the Best Draft?

This is a tough one because I like what a lot of teams did with this draft. Mark Cacko is loaded at RB with CJ2K, Benson, and Barber to go with Tom Brady at QB. His success will depend upon his WRs living up to their potential. Second-year men Michael Crabtree and Hakeem Nicks. Furthermore, Vincent Jackson’s suspension/holdout is a bit of a concern, but worth a flier as a late 3rd WR.


I drafted for Mike Butler using his cheat sheets. I can tell you that he will be ecstatic that he landed Michael Turner, his 5th ranked player 10th. He also landed Larry Fitzgerald, his 10th ranked player. Furthermore, Brandon Marshall, Felix Jones, Clinton Portis, Mike Wallace, Arian Foster, Jerricho Cotchery, and Roy Williams were all drafted well after where he had them ranked.


Who Had the Worst Draft?

This is even tougher than the last question. I won’t wimp out completely like Al. I do agree with his philosophy that I shouldn't offend and that all teams are pretty even. While I don’t think any team’s draft is really much worse than another, I’ll throw a team out there who maybe went with too many risk/reward players at one single position as a point of learning:


Kevin Zebrowski has some good RBs and a solid QB, but he went with a few too many fliers at WR (D. Jackson, P. Garcon, M. Floyd, J. Knox, A. Collie, and J. Edelman). Personally, I tend to like to diversify the portfolio by grabbing a few fliers at a position and a few proven guys. Jackson merits a look as a top 12 fantasy WR due to his amazing speed and long-distance scores. However, if you can stop him from making the big play, he's usually a bust that week. Garcon came on strong in the playoffs last year, but is not a sure bet to repeat that performance in the regular season with the Colts wanting to run more and with Anthony Gonzalez returning. Malcolm Floyd is the Chargers #1 WR with Vincent Jackson holding out, but can he carry the torch? I’m not completely sold. Johnny Knox could be a stud in a Mike Martz offense, but he could also be passed by on the depth chart by Aromoshadu or Earl Bennett. Edelman is a flier that he'll replace an injured Welker or beat out Holt for a job. Collie must also fend off Anthony Gonzalez, but was more of a pick as an attempt to get a TD reception from a Colts WR (Garcon or Collie). My bet is that Kevin will get enough out of these guys to keep him in the playoff hunt. Heck, if Garcon turns in 75% of what Marvin Harrison did in his good years or if Floyd replaces Jackson, then Kevin is well positioned for a deep fantasy playoff run. However, if some of these guys don’t show up, Kevin will have his work cut out for him in finding someone on the waiver wire.



How did I do?

I am optimistic in my chances to make a deep playoff run. I don’t think I have the team to beat drafting out of the 8th spot, but I have a solid roster with few weaknesses. I think this means that I have a playoff caliber team and anything can happen in the fantasy playoffs. I stayed pretty darn true to my draft board, but didn’t get any major steals. For the most part I drafted guys where I expected them to be drafted. My success will largely hinge upon two guys: 1) Jonathan ‘Please don’t call him James’ Stewart 2) Wes ‘I hope he won’t need a’ Welker. If any injury sets back DeAngelo Williams, I could have a top 5 RB on my hands in Stewart. If he platoons like last year, I’ll have a decent #2 RB. However, Stewart has also seen his fair share of injuries so he’s not a sure bet #2 fantasy RB. If Wes Welker returns to form, he’ll be a great 2nd WR to complement Andre Johnson on my roster. If not, I’ll need help from Housh, Holmes, and a miracle from Devin Thomas and/or Early Doucet (Yikes)! Next, I’ll need my backup RBs, Harrison and Taylor to get enough carries/touches to spot start for me when Grant or Stewart have off weeks.

Below is a snippet of our Rookie Report that can be found in our 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Kit. For the complete Rookie Report you will need subscribe to our Premium Services

QB Sam Bradford (STL), 1st Round - After dumping Marc Bulger, their long-time starting QB, the Rams biggest need entering the 2010 draft was at the Quarterback position. Enter Sam Bradford, the 1st pick of the draft. Had Bradford come out in the 2009 draft most experts felt that he, not Matthew Stafford would have been taken as the first pick.

Bradford joins the Rams despite some question marks. The first of which is how his injured shoulder would take to punishment in the NFL after twice being seriously injured while playing at Oklahoma last year. The next question is how he will perform taking snaps under center rather than only in the shotgun. Despite those questions, we’re figuring that Bradford stands a good chance to win the starting job right from the start of the season (and we’re willing to say no later than early October) as the Rams may not be so inclined to start A.J. Feeley. Therefore, Bradford should likely be drafted as a third QB in most re-draft fantasy leagues. Still, one must consider that the Rams don’t exactly offer a great supporting cast for Bradford to put up big numbers. Aside from Steven Jackson, the Rams talent at the skill positions is subpar, especially at WR. If you’re drafting in a keeper league you should move Bradford up to be a late #2 fantasy QB considering his long-term potential. If you’re drafting in a dynasty league, Bradford will merit a look as a top 3 pick and should be the first QB taken as we don’t see him fizzling out the way JaMarcus Russell has.



RB C.J. Spiller (BUF), 1st round – With Marshawn Lynch seemingly in the dog house, or worse (like on the way out), in Buffalo, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller figure to share the RB duties in Buffalo. Spiller is a dynamic, game-breaking weapon that ran for TDs, caught TDs, scored TDs in the return game, and even threw a few TDs. Still, he figures to be the second-half of the Bills one-two punch at RB. We’re figuring that Jackson will account for 55-60% of the touches and that Spiller will account for 40-45% of the touches in Buffalo this year. We also see Spiller being called upon to be the more explosive threat in this offense as he has more game breaking speed. He could even at times serve as a slot WR in a Reggie Bush type role. However, don’t be fooled if you’re expecting Spiller to only fill the third down back role and serve as a kick returner because he’s a talented pass catcher and good return man. Notice that Jackson has good hands as evidenced by his 46 catches for 371 yards and 2 TDs and is quite talented in the return game. Last year Jackson actually became the first NFL player to surpass 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 kick return yards in the same season.

So you might ask, what role we see these RBs taking on in Buffalo. Well, both RBs should be somewhat interchangeable. Still, we figure that Jackson’s size (6-1, 215) compared to Spiller’s (5-11, 195) will help him fill more of the 1st and 2nd down role and short-yardage situations. Take that for what it’s worth as the Bills offensive line is not just suspect, it could be, well, offensive. That means that you should view either RB as no more than a RB3 for your fantasy team and with Jackson holding slightly more value than Spiller. Both Buffalo RBs should be drafted as the 26th – 34th RBs in most re-draft leagues. Spiller’s value is as a marginal RB2 in most keeper leagues and the 2nd or 3rd RB selected and a top 4 pick amongst rookies in a dynasty league.



WR Demaryius Thomas (DEN), 1st round – The Broncos desperately needed to fill the void in their offense left by the Marshall trade. While Thomas’ size and athleticism is similar to Brandon Marshall, he will likely need some seasoning before he’s ready to contribute a lot to the Broncos offense. He doesn’t have a lot of experience in a pro-style as he’s transitioning in from a triple-option offense. Still, for playing in a run heavy offense, Thomas posted very good numbers last year with 46 catches for 1,154 yards and 8 TDs. That’s a whopping 25 yards per catch average! Rookie WRs rarely turn into fantasy gems and we don’t see Thomas being a stud WR this year. Thomas should merit consideration as a 5th WR in re-draft leagues. His stock in keeper leagues will only be slightly elevated. In dynasty leagues, he should merit a look as one of the top 2-3 WRs, if not the top.


TE Jermaine Gresham (CIN), 1st round – In spite of the fact that Gresham missed the 2009 season with a serious knee injury he was still selected as the 21st pick of the draft. Gresham’s size (6-5, 260) should make him a nice target for Palmer. Furthermore, if Gresham can re-capture the speed and quickness that he had prior to his knee injury, he could be a field stretching TE that can free up Ochocinco outside, help move the sticks, and be a solid target in the red zone. Keep in mind that in 2008 Gresham amassed 66 catches for 950 yards and 14 TDs. What does this mean for his fantasy value? Well, he is a marginal #2 fantasy TE in re-draft leagues, a solid #2 TE in keeper leagues, and should easily be the first TE picked in dynasty leagues.

33. STL - WR Arrelious Benn (Illinois)
34. DET - RB Jahvid Best (California)
35. TB - WR Golden Tate (Notre Dame)
36. KC - LB Daryl Washington (TCU)
37. PHI - CB Kareem Jackson (Alabama)
38. CLE - QB Colt McCoy (Texas)
39. OAK - WR Demaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech)
40. SD - DT Terrence Cody (Alabama)
41. BUF - QB Tim Tebow (Florida)
42. TB - CB Devin McCourty (Rutgers)
43. DEN - DT Tyson Alualu (California)
44. NE - CB Patrick Robinson (Florida State)
45. DEN - LB Sean Lee (Penn State)
46. NYG - DT Cam Thomas (North Carolina)
47. NE - OT Rodger Saffold (Indiana)
48. CAR - DE Carlos Dunlap (Florida)
49. SF - DT Lamarr Houston (Texas)
50. KC - TE Rob Gronkowski (Arizona)
51. HOU - S Nate Allen (South Florida)
52. PIT - CB Brandon Ghee (Wake Forest)
53. NE - WR Damian Williams (USC)
54. CIN - DT Linval Joseph (East Carolina)
55. PHI - OL Vladimir Ducasse (UMass)
56. GB - CB Perish Cox (Oklahoma State)
57. BAL - LB Brandon Spikes (Florida)
58. ARI - TE Aaron Hernandez (Florida)
59. DAL - S Morgan Burnett (Georgia Tech)
60. SEA - QB Tony Pike (Cincinnati)
61. NYJ - OLB Ricky Sapp (Clemson)
62. MIN - CB Javier Arenas (Alabama)
63. IND - CB Chris Cook (Virginia)
64. NO - RB Jonathan Dwyer (Georgia Tech)