Ask The Commish.com - Statistical Analysis

In Part 2 of what will be a 5-part series, reflecting on the fantasy year that was, I have assembled a team made up exclusivly of Breakout players from 2011. A Breakout player is similar to a Sleeper in that both out-perform they expected output. But, whereas a Sleeper may perform better than expected, a Breakout player rises to the level of actually being a fantasy stud -- a status that he has never held before. To illustrate that distinction, note that Part 3 will be my Ask the Commish.Com All Sleeper Fantasy Team.

QB		Matthew Stafford: Here is where we can pat ourselves on the back, as we predicted that Stafford would have a breakout season in 2011. (Before I get carried away, it is worth noting that we also identified Josh Freeman as a potential Breakout player, and he may wind up making my All Bust Team.) The promise had been there for Stafford all along: he throws one of the prettiest spirals I have seen since Warren Moon was in his prime 20 years ago. When given the chance to play in his first two seasons, Stafford actually played very well -- he just had trouble staying healthy. In 2011, he finally managed to stay healthy for 16 games, and his resulting passing numbers were staggering: 5038 yards and 41 TDs to go with 16 INTs. The really frightening thing is that the "Baby-Faced Assasin" is so young. He won't be 24 until next month (February 7). Honorable Mention: Eli Manning. Peyton's baby brother is now forcing many observers to pose the question: Which Manning brother is better? Obviously, Eli has a way to go before he can come close to matching Peyton's resume, but the question is no longer absurd. Eli has always been a bit underrated -- and it was really only the surplus of turnovers the last couple of seasons which prevented him from being listed among the elite QBs in the league. In the preseason, Eli rather famously stated that he belived that he was indeed an elite NFL QB. 4910 passing yards and 29 TDs (plus a rushing TD too) and a second trip to the Super Bowl prove that he is right. However, 16 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles suggest that turnovers remain a problem for him, which is why he falls behind Rodgers, Brees, Brady -- and now probably Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford too -- in terms of fantasy potential.

RB		Ryan Mathews: If 2011 was the year of the QB with 3 guys passing for more than 5000 yards and 7 more eclipsing the 4000-yard mark, it was definitely a down year for fantasy RBs. Hence, my choices here are not as enticing as the QB or WR selections. Mathews entered the league in 2010 with plenty of fanfare -- based as much on his landing spot in San Diego, with Norv Turner who has made a career out of producing elite fantasy RBs, as much as his pure talent. However, Mathews' rookie year was a disappointment as he struggled with injuries and never seemed to earn Turner's trust. Mathews improved mightily in 2011, rushing for 1091 yards on 227 carries. He also caught 50 passes for 455 yards, giving a healthy 1546 total yards from the line scrimmage. Indeed, Mathews was a revelation in heavy-yardage and PPR leagues; however, his meager TD production (just 6 on the ground, none via the pass) limits his upside. In fact, Mathews actually scored more TDs (7) in 2010. Part of the problem is that Turner had a maddening tendency to take Mathews out in favor of Mike Tolbert in 3rd down and goal line situations. The question will continue to loom about whether or not Mathews is durable enough to be an every-down back.

RB		Darren Sproles: Sproles is a guy who emerged on the scene from virtually nowhere -- he went undrafted in most fantasy leagues. He had had his mooments in San Diego, but it took Sean Payton in New Orleans to tap into his unrealized potential. The funny thing is that he actually did NOT get appreciably more touches with the Saints than he had with the Chargers -- at least in the running game. It's just that he was so much more productive with his carries this year. For example, in 2009 (in San Diego) he carried the ball 93 times for a meager 343 yards (just 3.688 yards per carry). In 2011 (with the Saints) he carried the ball 87 time for a whopping 603 yards (an eye-popping 6.93 yards per carry). He was also a huge factor in the passing game: 86 receptions for 710 yards, and 7 of his 9 TDs came via the pass. He ended the season on a high note catching 15 passes for 119 yards and a TD in the Saints' 36-32 loss to San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Playoff game. Honorable Mention: Michael Bush. How good was Michael Bush in 2011? Well, the latest rumor is that the Raiders are strongly considering using the franchise tag on him -- and putting Darren McFadden out there as trade bait. Through the first 6 weeks of the season, when DMC was ostensibly healthy, Bush was primarily used as a goal line back. However, when the injury bug struck, Bush made the most of the opportunities afforded him. The Raiders were content to pound the ball with the big, 245 lb back. Over a 3-game stretch (weeks 10-12), Bush carried the ball 84 times -- hitting the 30-carry mark in 2 of those games. He fell just short of 1,000 yards (977 to be exact) and scored 7 rushing TDs as well. He was also surprisingly active in the passing game: 37 receptions for 418 yards. Like Mathews, C.J. Spiller entered his 2nd season in the league with somewhat modest expectations. Spiller, the #9 overall pick in 2010 and the first RB drafted that year, had only managed 74 carries as a rookie. Spiller's inability to get on the field was less about Spiller playing poorly -- and more about a guy named Fred Jackson playing in front of him. However, when Jackson went down with a leg injury in week 11, Spiller became the primary back from Week 12 on. He combined for more than 100 yards (rushing + receiving) in 4 of those 6 games, and racked up a total of 633 yards and 5 TDs (3 rushing, 2 receiving) during that span. That is 1688 yards and 13 TDs over the course of a full season. Of course, with Fred Jackson coming back, Spiller is unlikely to maintain that kind of pace for a full season. With that said, if Chan Gailey can come up with more creative ways to get him 15 touches per game, Spiller could very well be the 2012 version of Darren Sproles.

WR		Jordy Nelson: Nelson was part of a 2008 draft class that was decidedly underwhelming at the WR position. Not a single receiver was taken in the first round that year. The second round saw the following WRs (excluding Nelson) go: Donnie Avery, Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Eddie Royal, Jerome Simpson, DeSean Jackson, Malcolm Kelly, and Limas Sweed. Half of these guys are no longer even in the league. Nelson had shown some flashes in his first 3 seasons, especially during the Packers playoff run in 2010. Still, he had never hit the 600-yard mark or scored more than 2 TDs in any season. In fact, heading into 2011, his career totals (over 3 seasons) were 100 receptions for 1268 yards and 6 TDs. I would say, then, his single-season totals for 2011 -- 68 receptions for 1263 yards and 15 TDs -- classify as a breakout. The 15 TDs ranked 2nd among WRs -- only Megatron had (1) more.

WR		Victor Cruz: Entering his 2nd season in the NFL, Victor Cruz had never caught a pass in his career, so it is fair to say that he literally came from nowhere to emerge as a fantasy stud in 2011. Although we tabbed him as a Super Sleeper prior to the start of the season, given Steve Smith's exodus to Philly, we honestly never dreamed that Cruz would be capable of catching 82 passes for 1536 yards and 9 TDs. He proved to be a perfect slot receiver to compliment Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham. Honorable Mention: Laurent Robinson was in danger of getting cut in training camp. He had already suffered the shame of washing out in Atlanta, where he was drafted back in 2007. Things started off badly this year too, as he failed to catch a ball in either of the first 2 games of the season. However, an injury to Miles Austin gave Robinson a much needed boost. By the time it was all said and done, he had racked up 858 yards and 11 TDs on the season. We love fantasy RBs who can catch the ball. Percy Harvin represents the inverse: a fantasy WR who can run with the ball. We pegged Harvin as a Sleeper heading into the season, and his receiving numbers -- 87 receptions for 967 yards and 6 TDs -- bore that out. However, it was his rushing totals -- 51 rushes for 342 yards and 2 TDs, which (when added to his receiving totals) classified him as a fantasy stud in 2011.


TE		Jimmy Graham: In the preseason, we told everyone who would listen that Jimmy Graham had the potential for a big year. Sure enough, he and fellow class of 2010 TE, Rob Gronkowski, exploded onto the scene. Graham caught 99 passes for 1310 yards and 11 TDs. He and Gronk will be the top 2 TEs drafted in most fantasy leagues in 2012 -- and both should be gone before the start of the 4th round.

PK		Dan Bailey: Bailey was a first-year kicker, so he could rightfully go on the "ATC All Rookie Team". However, he certainly burst upon the scene and qualifies in my mind for this Breakout team. Considering that he kicks for "America's Team", he should continue to have ample scoring opportunities for years to come. He made good on 28 of 34 field goals and all 63 extra points in 2011.
D/ST		Detroit Lions: The Lions themselves were a true breakout team in 2011, making the playoffs for the first time in this Millenium. Yes, the explosive offense triggered by Stafford and Megatron was a big reason for that. But so was the defense. They did give up a lot of yards (5882 to be exact) and points (387). However, fantasy defenses are more focused on sacks, turnovers and TD returns -- and the Lions came up big in all of those departments with 41, 34 and 4 respectively.

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