Ask The Commish.com - Statistical Analysis

In Part 1 of what will be a 5-part series, reflecting on the fantasy year that was, I have assembled what I believe is the top team possible from all the NFL players from the past season. I call it the "Ask the Commish.Com All Stud Team". When I first started doing this, I assumed that this particular team would be rather simple to assemble -- that it would be simply a matter of looking at each position and identifying the player(s) who compiled the most fantasy points on the year. However, I suspect that there very well could be some controversy regarding the specific players that I chose. Certainly some of these selections could be open to debate.

QB		Aaron Rodgers: It seems almost anti-climatic now, given his and the Packers rather sudden exit from the Playoffs. However, this list is based on typical fantasy scoring systems that typically conclude in Week 16 of the regular season. So we can't even dock Rodgers for taking a seat in the regular season finale and watching as Matt Flynn made a lot of money for himself by breaking all kinds of Packer single-game passing records. Getting back to Rodgers, he had a sensational season, passing for 4637 yards, 45 TDs and just 6 INTs in 15 games. He also tacked on 257 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs. His LOC (Level of Confidence) Rating was a perfect 1.00. That is right: Rodgers passed for 300 yards or scored multiple TDs in every game. His worst performance of the year came in Week 14, when he passed for 281 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. I think most of ust would take such a performance from our fantasy QB (which, when extrapolated over 16 games, equates to just a shade under 4500 yards and 32 TDs) any week -- but, again, that was Rodgers' WORST game of the year. Bottom Line: Rodgers was a fantasy QB that performed at a high level EACH and EVERY week for his fantasy owners. Honorable Mention: Drew Brees. After all, the guy did just shatter Dan Marino's single-season passing record, which had stood for 3 decades. One could argue that Brees' having passed for more yards (5436) and more TDs (46) than Rodgers could qualify him as the real fantasy stud QB of the year. That is a reasonable argument. However, I would counter with the point that Rodgers would very likely have passed for an additional 300-400 yards (or more) and multiple additional TDs if he had suited up for all 16 games (as Brees did), rather than sitting out that aforementioned regular season finale. Moreover, Brees did have 3 games in which he threw more INTs than TDs. It is splitting hairs, I know. Both of these guys should be drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts in 2012 -- and I wouldn't laugh at anyone from drafting either of them with the number 1 overall pick. Yes, that is right -- drafting a QB wih the first overall pick in your fantasy draft in 2012 is a very real option.

RB		Ray Rice: No, Rice isn't the fantasy machine that Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes or LaDainian Tomlinson were in their primes. But like those 3 fantasy heroes, Rice has become a huge factor in PPR formats. Rice caught 76 passes for 704 yards and 3 TDs; he was targeted in the passing game a whopping 104 times. Combined with his 1364 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs, that allowed him to finish the year with over 2000 yards from scrimmage and 15 TDs.

RB		LeSean McCoy: The "Dream Team" may very well have come up short in 2011, but no one can blame LeSean McCoy for the Eagles' under-achievement. Like Ray Rice, McCoy was a big factor in the passing game -- but honestly less of a factor that we thought he would be. After all, in 2010 he led all RBs in receptions with 78; this year he caught 30 fewer. Where McCoy made strides, however, was in his ability to find the endzone. He scored 17 rushing TDs and scored 3 more via the air for a grand total of 20 TDs overall. Honorable Mention: Arian Foster. On a purely per-game basis, Foster was the top fantasy RB in the game. Despite missing all or part of the first 3 games as well as the regular season finale, he still finished with 1841 total yards and 12 TDs. He will be drafted as the #1 fantasy RB (which means that he is the odds-on favorite to be the #1 overall pick) in many fantasy leagues in 2012. Maurice Jones-Drew is himself a fantasy fanatic, and he loves drafting himself in every format. He certainly helped his own cause by leading the league in rushing (1606 yards), which also happens to be a career best. The only knock on MJD is that he wasn't much of a TD-threat in 2011 (just 8 rushing TDs, plus 3 more receiving), but that could change in 2012 if the supporting cast on offense improves. MJD truly was a one-man show for the Jags in 2011.

WR		Calvin Johnson: "Megatron" flirted with breaking some serious receiving records in 2011. He did turn heads by scoring multiple TDs in each of his first 4 games to start the season. Think about that for a minute: After just 4 weeks, the dude already had 8 TD receptions. To put things into perspective, only 7 other WRs scored more than 8 TDs all season long! For the year, Johnson finished with 96 receptions for 1681 yards and 16 TDs. He was inarguably the top fantasy WR in 2011 and will be drafted as such in 2012.

WR		Wes Welker: Welker remains the PPR Champion of the World. In 2011 Welker caught 122 passes; Roddy White was the only other receiver to hit the 100-reception mark, and he finished with exactly 100. That makes it 4 of the last 5 years now that Welker has hit that century mark. If you are a Patriots fan or had him on your fantasy team, he is a hero to you. To opposing teams, he is like an annoying gnat that just won't go away -- a first-down machine. Welker wasn't much of a deep threat -- just (12.8 yards per reception, which was inflated by his catch-and-run 99-yarder against Miami in Week 1), but his sheer volume allowed him to rack up 1569 yards. Brady tended to zero in on his TEs once the Pats neared the end zone, but Welker still managed to score 9 TDs. Honorable Mention: Jordy Nelson. Considering that he scored 15 TDs, second to only Megatron, you could argue that Nelson deserves to make this team over Welker. Possibly. However, Nelson made my All Breakout Team, which will be the 2nd part of this series -- and I have made the rule not to include the same player on more than one team. Can you say cop-out? I don't know. I think it is still hard to argue with Welker's 122 receptions, which would have scored him an extra 54 points over Nelson in PPR formats, and additional 306 receiving yards. The same applies to Victor Cruz, who also made my All Breakout Team.


TE		Rob Gronkowski: This one shouldn't be hard to argue. Gronk posted better numbers than all but a handful of WRs: 90 receptions for 1327 yards and 17 TDs. Actually, look closer at that stat-line. Yes, he scored more TDs than Megatron, which means that he caught more TDs than anyone else in 2011 and more than any TE, ever. His yards per reception total was higher than Wes Welker's. Given the massive point differential between Gronkowski and every other fantast TE not named Jimmy Graham, if you had him on your fantasy team, you were able to mask serious deficiencies elsewhere. That is why I firmly believe that in 2012 Gronkoswki is worth drafting as early as the 2nd round in most fantasy formats. Honorable Mention: Jimmy Graham. I just mentioned him, and were it not for Gronkowski's heroics, we would be talking about Graham's breakout season (99 receptions for 1310 yards and 11 TDs). (Hint: Graham made my All Breakout team).

PK		David Akers: Akers had been a fantasy mainstay for years in Philadelphia, usually drafted as a top 5 kicker in most fantasy formats. However, when the Eagles drafted Alex Henery and opted to waive adios to Akers, the 37 year-old kicker landed on his feet in San Francisco. In fact, Akers responded with arguably the best season of his career making good on 44 of 52 field goals and 34 extra points. By contrast, Henery kicked only 24 field goals -- but 46 extra points. And that brings up a great point: In kicking for a defense-first team with an offense that had a habit of stalling inside the red zone (as opposed to scoring TDs in those situations as the Eagles more frequently did), Akers actually found himself in a much more favorable situation.
D/ST		San Francisco 49ers:We just mentioned that the 49ers were a defense-first team. More specifically, the 49ers' defense was tops in most fantasy formats. They ranked toward the top in nearly every big-play defensive category (all of which are fantasy relevant): 7th in sacks (42), 2nd in INTs (23), 1st in fumble recoveries (15), and 1st in combined turnovers (38). The amazing thing is that they did not have a single TD return via interception, fumble recovery, blocked punt or blocked FG. That actually shows how dominant the San Francisco defense was that they were the #1 fantasy defense WITHOUT the aid of any TD return to artificially inflate their true fantasy production. Points allowed isn't a big factor in most fantasy scoring systems, but the 49ers did rank 2nd (behind the Steelers) in that category. They were 4th in yards allowed, which is the silly parameter that the NFL uses to rank defenses. Vic Fangio deserves major kudos for turning this unit around.

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