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 Sleepers
 Overview
A "Sleeper" is any player that no one expects to perform as well as they actually do.  Many fantasy owners sleep on drafting them, while the wise owner knows potential when they see it.  These sleeper players manage to have a breakout year and push marginal fantasy teams over the edge and into the playoffs.  A fantasy owner's success in picking the "sleepers", or their lack of success in picking sleepers, is often a deciding factor for a number of league championships.  

Some examples of Sleepers from last year, along with their fantasy rank, are as follows:

Pos Rank Player Rank Player
QB 2 Drew Brees (NO) 6 Jon Kitna (DET)
RB 4 Willie Parker (PIT) 5 Frank Gore (SF)
WR 5 Donald Driver (GB ) 19 Terry Glenn (DAL)
TE 8 Desmond Clark (CHI) 2 PK N. Kaeding (SD)
 
Learn who could be in this year's Sleeper class:
QB RB WR TE K Defense
 
 Quarterbacks

Jason Campbell - Washington Redskins
The success or failure of the Redskins' offense in 2007 all hinges on the play of Jason Campbell . When Al Sauders and his 700-page playbook offense faltered last year, Joe Gibbs made the painful decision to move away from Mark Brunell and ride out the season with the second-year Campbell . The young QB was clearly green, and he failed to ignite the spark necessary to repair the offense. However, Campbell didn't embarrass himself either. In 7 games of action, Campbell completed 110 of 207 pass attempts for 1297 yards, 10 TD passes and 6 interceptions. He also rushed for 112. The yardage totals and completion percentage may not have been great, but the TD production equates to about 23 over a full season. Not too shabby.

More importantly, Campbell gained valuable real-game experience. He displayed the strong throwing arm and decent mobility that convinced the Redskins to gamble on trading up into the first round to draft him back in 2005. Even better, he showed incredible poise and a definite pocket presence for such a young signal caller. He enters the 2007 season as the Washington Redskins' undisputed starter. By all accounts he has looked very sharp in OTAs, and the team is anxious to see how he looks once the bullets start flying in real game situations.

We've seen Campbell ranked as low as the 30th QB in some so-called expert rankings. We see him more in the 20-25 range, which establishes him as a borderline #2 fantasy QB in typical 12-team leagues. In all honesty, if Campbell is able to stay healthy and continues to improve, there is no reason why he shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as a Matt Leinart or a Jay Cutler. From that perspective, we see him as a decent Sleeper prospect. - Al Lackner

Jay Cutler- Denver Broncos
Cutler is not off the radar, but should significantly outperform his draft position. He has 4 legitimate receivers at his disposal with Javon Walker, Brandon Marshall, Rod Smith (assuming he returns later in the year), and Brandon Stokely. Though there are questions with Marshall and the aging Smith, there is high potential. Add in offensive guru Mike Shannahan, and the recipe for success is there. Then consider Cutler's cool head, as shown in his experience toward the end of the year last year, and his cannon of an arm and you have a QB who has great potential to outperform many QBs taken much earlier in the draft. - Richard Zigweid

Jon Kitna - Detroit Lions
I know, he's hardly a sleeper, but just like every other year, Kitna gets pushed aside for the glamour names yet ends up clocking in with solid fantasy stats. In a Martz-led offense, he's bound to do well. Heck, this guy finished 6th amongst fantasy QBs last year and he has more weapons this year. It puzzles me why some leagues aren't drafting him until after the 10th QB is off the board. - Tim DiRocco

J.P. Losman - Buffalo Bills
J.P. Losman may very well have been the most improved player in the NFL in 2006. At this time last year, he was locked in a battle for the starting position with Kelly Holcomb and Craig Nall. By the time training camp closed, Losman was the undisputed starter -- and he wound up taking every snap at QB for the season. This, despite playing behind a patchwork offensive line and rupturing his bursa sack early in the season. He finished the season completing 269 of 430 pass attempts for 3050 yards, which are respectable totals. The 62.56 completion percentage was a far cry from the sub-50% he posted in 2005. Moreover, he also posted a decent TD-INT ratio, having thrown 19 TD passes to 14 interceptions. He also rushed for 140 yards and 1 TD.

Losman struggled early in the season -- and there was plenty of talk during the bye week (which fell in Week 8) that the team would have to hand the reins over to Holcomb or Nall. However, an overhaul of the offensive line during that bye week served to jump-start the entire offense, particularly Losman. The turning point came in Week 11 against Houston when Losman completed 26 of 38 passes for 340 yards. He threw 3 TD passes in that game, including the game winner in the closing seconds. Over the course of the final seven weeks of the season, Losman proved to be one of the top fantasy QBs in the game.

Credit goes to offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild for bringing Losman along slowly. Fairchild rode Losman hard in practice and forced the athletic young QB to stay in the pocket as much as possible. Although this limited Losman's opportunities to make plays with his legs, it clearly helped him to better digest the offensive game plan and to better read opposing defenses. Now that Fairchild has greater confidence in Losman, look for him to open the playbook even more. There's talk of even dusting off Jim Kelly's old Hurry-Up/No-Huddle offense in which Losman thrived at times last season. Also, with pronounced improvements to the offensive line, look for the tight ends and running backs to be more heavily involved in the passing, rather than having to stay in to block. That could also mean a greater 3rd down completion percentage, which was one of Losman's biggest weaknesses last season.

J.P. Losman is far from a sure thing. He will need to sustain the excellence he showed over the second-half of last season. With just 24 starts in his career -- and most of them bad ones -- there is no guarantee that he will do that. Note also that he plays in upstate New York , where the well-known adverse weather conditions usually don't bode well for passing stats. So, even if he continues to improve, from a fantasy perspective, we're not ready to anoint him as a starter just yet. However, the definite progression that he exhibited last season coupled with the improvements that the team has made on the offensive side of the ball in the off-season bode well for the young QB to have a truly breakout 2007 campaign. A possible Sleeper for sure. - Paul Baitinger, Al Lackner, Trent DeGrazia

Phil Rivers - San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers has all of the tools to overachieve this season. His average draft position has him going as a late 7th, early 8th rounder, but he could easily put up numbers that would warrant him being taken 3 rounds earlier. When you consider that his new head coach, Norv Turner, was able to get nearly 3,000 yards from 49ers QB Alex Smith in 2006, the sky's the limit for the leader of a much more potent Chargers' offense. -Bryan Hughes

Tony Romo - Dallas Cowboys
I've decided not to jump the gun on a QB early this year and go for my signal caller in the middle rounds of the draft. Let others have their Peyton, Palmer and Brady, I'll take Romo. Just look at his numbers from last year: with only 11 starts he averaged 260 yards per game. On a full season that could mean a 4200 yards . With a happy T.O on the team you know he'll get the scores to go along with those yards. Romo, who didn't throw a single pass during a regular season until last year is more experienced, more confident, he's entering a contract year and he's dating Carrie Underwood, What else can we ask for? He could be a star in the making and a fantasy bargain checking in as the 7th - 10th QB off the board. -Jesse Abraham

Alex Smith - San Francisco 49ers
Smith made great strides last year and the team aquired a #1 WR in Darrell Jackson and a solid #2 in Ashlie Lelie. Smith should be better with Gore around to keep the defenses honest and with Vernon Davis likely to develop into a higher-quality TE. Sure, Smith will miss Norv Turner, but he should continue to develop and get 3100 yards with 20 TDs. - Paul Baitinger and Mark Cacko
 


 
 Running Backs

Ladell Betts - Washington Redskins
Clinton Portis is the big-name back in Washington, but he hasn't exactly been a picture of perfect health. Betts proved last year that he is more than capable of carrying the load (1154 yards rushing, 4.7 per carry). Betts is already slated to split carries with Portis so once he takes over full time look out. Betts will be involved heavily in the offense. In the likely event that Portis goes down at some point to injury, Betts can vault from contributer to a great fantasy player. -Al Lackner, Trent DeGrazia, Richard Zigweid

DeShaun Foster - Carolina Panthers
A new zone-blocking scheme in Carolina could translate into big things for both DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. As of today, it appears as though Foster will be named the starter and, if he can remain healthy, would likely keep the mildly disappointing Williams on the bench. -Bryan Hughes

Ahman Green - Houston Texans
Green may surprise some this season in the “ Denver ” running scheme. He had 1400 total yards and 5 TDs last year, with a 4.0 average per rush. He is 30, but he should have another 1000-yard campaign, with 6-8 TDs. Green also catches the ball quite well which should help to limit the amount of times that Wali Lundy steps onto the field as the third down back. This means that he should be a VERY good #3 RB who will fall to the mid rounds in most drafts. You should also keep in mind that Houston 's running game seemed to find some rhythm the last ¼ of the season.

Green probably has enough left in the tank for one more full-power season, yet is going as low as the 6th round in some drafts. Draft him earlier to get a jump on the competition. -Paul Baitinger and Tim DiRocco

Brandon Jacobs - New York Giants
Jacobs, a big, bruising RB stands at 6-4 and 265 pounds and is surprisingly quick for his size and has better hands than most would think. He had 7 TDs in 2005 as a rookie. The odd part about those numbers is that he didn't even register 100 yards rushing (he had only 99 yards on 38 carries). Last year Jacobs showed that he's a bit more than a one-dimensional short-yardage RB.

He tore up the competition in the preseason, showing that once he gets going he's not going to stop very easily and that he can move fairly well at top speed. With Tiki out of the picture, the Giants brought in another big back, Reuben Droughns to share the load. We expect Jacobs to see more than half of the Giants carries, but maybe not quite 2/3 in a true RBBC. We feel that he should account for nearly 1000 yards of offense and double-digit TDs and should be drafted as a marginal #2 fantasy RB with potential to be a great #2 RB if he takes on the full load. -Jesse Abraham and Paul Baitinger

Brandon Jackson - Green Bay Packers
There may have been other rookie running backs that we had ranked higher than Brandon Jackson coming out of college. However, none of these guys will be suiting up for the Green Bay Packers with a legitimate shot at winning the starting job early on.

Mark this young man down as a definite Sleeper pick. It's no secret that the loss of Ahman Green in free agency opened a considerable hole at the starting RB position for the Packers. The team even flirted with the notion of making a trade with the Chargers for all-world backup RB Michael Turner. However, when it was all said and done, they elected instead to invest a day one draft pick on Jackson .

Although Jackson may not be as talented as Lynch or Peterson -- or possibly even some of the other RBs that were taken in this year's draft -- he stands a very good chance of being just as productive, based on the success that RBs have had in Green Bay 's offense. Consider this also: right now the only thing standing between Jackson and the starting job is Vernand Morency. 'Nough said. -Mark Cacko

Jamal Lewis - Cleveland Browns
For some reason, everyone is counting out Jamal Lewis , as if he were a bundle of damaged goods. Maybe he suffers from the stigma attached with moving away from a highly respected franchise like the Ravens to the lately down-trodden Browns? Maybe it's because there is still some lingering fall-out from his past legal issues? Maybe it's because he's perceived as downright old in running back years? Maybe it's because, as he's aged, he's also put on weight, which has appeared to slow him down? Maybe it's because he's coming off an ankle injury that required surgery just a few months back?

Now, let's address these issues one by one.

Although the Browns HAVE struggled in recent years -- they didn't just select #3 in the NFL draft for no reason -- they also must be viewed as a team on the rise. More specifically, they have made key acquisitions to help fix their offensive line both via the draft and free agency. In fact, don't be surprised -- with a little luck in the health department -- if the Browns' OL doesn't actually prove to be superior to the line in Baltimore in 2007.

By all accounts, Lewis' legal issues are behind him. His situation appears to have been a one-time lapse in judgment, and there is no indication that any other transgressions have since occurred -- or will occur for that matter.

It may be a bit of a surprise to discover that Jamal Lewis is just 28 years old. Yes, he's got a lot of mileage on him in his 6 seasons in the league (recall he missed all of the 2001 season), but there's no reason to believe that he doesn't still have some thread on those tires. Lewis is, in fact, two months YOUNGER than LaDainian Tomlinson, the guy virtually everyone has cited as the #1 over all fantasy pick in 2007! It is true that Lewis had weight issues last season; however, as he told Peter King, 'I weigh 239, not 251 or 252, like I used to. This is the best I've felt in a long time.' Finally, he's fully recovered from the off-season ankle injury, and there does not yet appear to be any lingering effects.

Still not convinced? Well, it's not as if Lewis is coming off an awful season. Last year he carried the ball 314 times and racked up 1132 yards and scored 9 rushing TDs. In fact, Lewis finished (on average) as the #14-ranked fantasy RB in fantasy leagues.

This year Jamal Lewis is being ranked about 25th by most fantasy publications heading into the 2007 season. As such, he's being valued as a #3 fantasy RB option in typical 12-team leagues. Aside from the concerns that we've attempted to alleviate, there are some issues that we simply can't brush aside. The fact remains that he's simply not a very good receiver coming out of the backfield. Aside from one fluke season (2002), when he inexplicably caught 47 passes fro 442 yards, he's never been much of a factor in that area of the game. Considering how much McNair likes to dump the ball off to his RBs, it comes as a bit of an indictment on Lewis' part that he managed just 18 receptions all of last year. And, even if his days as an NFL running back are not yet over, it appears as if his days as a breakaway threat are. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last season, which is at least an improvement over his 2005 average (3.4 YPC). Let's not forget that he is operating on TWO surgically repaired knees.

When you look at it that way, maybe the #25 ranking isn't out of place. Considering that's where his value is, we would NOT suggest reaching much higher than that for him, given all the risks. However, deep-down, we really feel that he can still serve some fantasy owner quite well as a potential second tier #2 fantasy RB. Sounds like we're calling Jamal Lewis a possible Sleeper, huh? - Al Lackner

 

 
 Wide Receivers

Bernard Berrian - Chicago Bears
Berrian is streaky, but he is the favorite deep target of Rex Grossman, and Rex LOVES to throw the deep ball. Berrian will have those weeks where he disappoints you, but should have more weeks where he gets 100 and a TD. - Richard Zigweid

Reggie Brown - Philadelphia Eagles
Ok, maybe Reggie Brown doesn't qualify perfectly to the definition of a sleeper pick, but in this case I'm not just saying he'll do good, I'm saying he could be a top 10-15 receiver by the end of the season. Brown showcased his talent last year, and if he and McNabb can manage to stay healthy throughout the season, I believe this combo could be hotter than Elisha Cuthbert in a nurse outfit. Kevin Curtis will help take some of the pressure off, and with the magic third year ahead of him, Brown is primed for a breakout season in Reid's pass happy offense. Not bad for a player you can get as your 3rd WR in many leagues. - Jesse Abraham

Chris Chambers - Miami Dolphins
From a fantasy perspective, the player who was most hurt by Culpepper's inability to come all the way back from the serious knee injury was Chris Chambers . Prior to last season, he had been one of the most underrated WRs in the NFL. However, the Culpepper trade served to inflate his value to the point where many fantasy owners viewed him as a potential #1 fantasy WR. That may seem fool-hardy now, but at this time last season, it actually made sense. He was coming off his best season, where he had posted career highs in catches (82) and yards (1118) and tied his career high with 11 TDs. When you examine his 2006 output of just 59 receptions for 677 yards and 4 TDs, your initial reaction must be to guess that he missed time with injury. However, when you take a closer look, you see that Chambers started all 16 games. Rather, he was the victim of poor QB play and inept play-calling on the part of then offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey.

So, how do we view Chambers? Is he on the decline after the dreadful 2006 season -- or was last year just a blip on the radar? After all, in the three seasons prior to 2006, Chambers scored a total of 29 TDs. That's almost 10 TDs per year, which places him in pretty elite company. And it's not as if he had the luxury of stellar QB play during those years either. Gus Frerotte? A.J. Feeley? Sage Rossenfels? Jay Fiedler? Come on.

Obviously, much is going to depend upon how quickly Chambers and Green hit it off. Like Chambers, Green is trying to make a comeback from an awful 2006 campaign. Prior to last year, Green made even the most pedestrian receivers (Eddie Kennison?) look pretty good. It says here that Chambers is set for a nice bounce-back 2007 season, where he could return to the 1,000-yard and 9-10 TD range. However, the expectations are going to be much lower, which means that you should have a decent opportunity to get great mid-to-late round value for him. Chambers should be a reliable #3 fantasy WR in most leagues with the chance to be even better. As we said, keep an eye on how well he and Green click in training camp. - Paul Baitinger and Al Lackner

Kevin Curtis - Philadelphia Eagles
Curtis had a solid if not spectacular stay in St. Louis , he was actually quite productive when he started in place of the injured Isaac Bruce in 2005. Now that he is part of the Eagles he is the odds on favorite to start opposite Reggie Brown and this means a return to those productive 2005 numbers. You have to like any WR in the Eagles offense, Andy Reid asks McNabb to throw up to 70% of the time and that only means good things the players on the receiving end of his passes. I expect most owners to draft Curtis as a #3 or #4 WR, he is about the 35 th receiver off the board or the 100 th over all player. I see him producing more like a solid #2 WR so I would beat everybody else to the punch and draft him a bit early maybe 85 th overall and reap the rewards of drafting a solid sleeper. - Trent DeGrazia

Joey Galloway - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Time really does fly by, doesn't it? For example, does it really seem like Joey Galloway should be entering his 13th season in the league already? Strange but true. Of course, he's had his shares of ups and downs over the years with his stops in Seattle (where he once sat out half of the season to play flag football with his brothers rather than report to the Seahawks), Dallas and most recently Tamp Bay . The irony is that there was a time when we really felt like Galloway was overrated. We couldn't understand why, for example, the Cowboys gave up multiple first round draft picks to acquire him from the Seahawks back in 2000, when Galloways was coming off a season in which he had only started 4 games! Galloway rewarded the Cowboys with four straight seasons in which he failed to crack the 1000-yard mark.

These days we see Galloway as being somewhat UNDERRATED. He may have lost some of the speed that made him such a coveted commodity in his early years, but he's made up for that with experience and maturity. As a result, his twilight years in Tampa Bay have been mostly productive, despite the musical chairs situation that has gone on at QB. In fact, he has gone over the 1,000-yard mark the past two seasons in a row -- and that's with the likes of Bruce Gradkowski tossing him the ball. Last season he showed some toughness battling through a series of nagging injuries. In 14 games of action, Galloway caught 62 passes for 1057 yards and 7 TDs with Bruce Gradkowski, Tim Rattay, and Chris Simms at the helm in 2006, so the possibility of him rebounding seems even more likely.

This season the QB situation looks like it will sort itself out one way or the other, with the venerable Jeff Garcia likely being the man. That would be good news for Galloway , as Garcia is probably the best QB he's played with during his years in TB. And, with Michael Clayton looking more and more like a bust, the Bucs may not have any other option than to continue to throw the ball Galloway 's way. Others may doubt whether he can still get the job done at 35 (he'll be 36 in November), but we feel that he's simply a late bloomer in the prime of his uneven career. With Galloway still ready, willing and able to burn corners on deep routes, we believe that he still has enough left in his tank for fantasy owners to bank on him for at least one more season. Look for him to again approach the 1,000-yard mark and to score another 6-7 TDs or so, thus qualifying him as an intriguing option as a #2 or #3 fantasy WR. - Paul Baitinger, Bryan Hughes, Al Lackner

Santanio Holmes - Pittsburgh Steelers
Holmes enters 2007 as the starter opposite Hines Ward in the Steeler offense. With a starting job across from Hines Ward all but gift-wrapped for him, he has the opportunity to put up big numbers. Keep in mind that this is a player that put up 5 20+ YPC games in 2006, finishing the year with 338 yards and a TD in December. He's been going in the 9th round on average, so there is good value found here. Also keep in mind that in 2006 his numbers improved every month, culminating with 4 December starts totalling 16 catches for 320 yards and a TD. He has the speed to be a deep threat and has the skills to be a 1200/5 player as a full-time starter if everything goes right. Despite this, many fantasy owners have been forgetting about him, so he could be one of the big sleeper pickups of the season. With all of this said, we'd suggest that you temper your enthusiasm and consider Holmes as a #3 fantasy WR. - Paul Baitinger, Mark Cacko, and Tim DiRocco

 
 Tight Ends

Randy McMichael - St. Louis Rams
Once a bona fide starting fantasy TE, we've seen Randy McMichael's stock tumble like never before. While it's true that McMichael showed a bad case of the dropsies last season, it is also true that he caught 62 passes for 640 yards and 3 TDs, which are very respectable numbers for a fantasy TE. Never mind, also, that the Dolphins QB situation was a mess last season. Tired of his inconsistency and off-field issues, the Dolphins allowed him to exit stage left -- and travel to St. Louis , where conventional wisdom has it that good tight ends go to die.

But... maybe we shouldn't be so quick to equate McMichael's move to St. Louis as such a bad career decision. After all, Mike Martz, who admittedly under-used pass-catching TEs in his system, left that franchise over a year ago, and the current head coach happens to be the same Scott Linehan who was McMichael's offensive coordinator in Miami a couple of years back. Perhaps not by coincidence, that is the year that McMichael scored a career high 5 TDs.

We agree that there are too many risks here for us to cite McMichael as a legitimate starting fantasy TE. Even if he and Bulger click right away, the Rams have a number of outstanding weapons already in place -- and McMichael is going to be the 4th option at best. With that said, we've seen no decline in his play over the years, and we expect that Linehan went out and got him for a reason. Since blocking isn't McMichael's forte', it's not hard to guess what the coach's plans are for him. For now, check him off as a top fantasy backup with the potential to be a starter in deeper leagues. - Al Lackner

Heath Miller - Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't like making predictions on sleeper tight ends because most of the time I get it wrong (Boo Williams, Doug Jolley and Zach Hilton come to mind), But if I'm forced to pick one this year I'll go with Heath Miller. Miller found his place on the Steelers offense as he scored 11 TDs during his first two season in the league, but he wasn't involved enough in the passing game as he should have been. This could change this year with Ariens wanting to focus more an the passing game. Miller could become an important fantasy TE for owners who think a 5th round pick is too much to spend on a tight end. - Jesse Abraham

Greg Olsen - Chicago Bears
Miami TEs have done well as of late in transitioning into the NFL, and the Bears give their TE a big role in their offense. Look for him to take over the top spot at least in terms of receiving and give Grossman a nice safety valve. - Mark Cacko

Bo Scaife - Tennessee Titans
The unheralded Bo Scaife is flying under the radar screen in many leagues. You should snatch him up as your backup fantasy TE especially in leagues where you haven't been able to invest an early pick on a TE. Being that Scaife has managed only 66 catches for 643 yards and 5 TDs thus far in his two NFL seasons there is some risk. However, at this point he appears to be Vince Young's favorite target. Perhaps some of that is because of their comfort level with one another: The two played together at Texas .

The real reason why Scaife is flying under the radar is because while he and Young played together at Texas they combined for only 42 receptions in two seasons and last year they managed only 22 receptions in 11 games. With that said, we expect his stats to take off this year to the range of about 50 catches and about 5 or 6 TDs. This would just about equal Scaife's career totals and we feel that this, his third year will be his breakout year. In fact, if you draft him as your backup, he might also outperform guys like Ben Watson, or LJ Smith who are typically considered starting fantasy TEs. - Paul Baitinger and Bryan Hughes

Tony Scheffler - Denver Broncos
Many people are pointing to the offseason signing of Daniel Graham as a sign that the Broncos are disappointed in Scheffler and are already giving up on him. Don't be one of them. Scheffler and Cutler have a great connection, as evidenced by his 51 ypg and 1 TD/game over the final 4 games last season. Graham was brought in to block, but the receiving TE is Scheffler, and he has a chance to be special this year. - Jesse Abraham and Richard Zigweid

 
 Kickers

Stephen Gostkowski- New England Patriots
Gostkowski will have the luxury of kicking for the Patriots who figure to have a much higher-powered offense this year. He should see an increase in PATs and FG attempts this year and should be a good value in fantasy leagues. At this point he has often been overlooked, so target him as a sleeper fantasy kicker as we expect him to convert approximately 25 of 30 FG attempts. - Paul Baitinger

 
 Team Defense

Green Bay Packers
Don't sleep too much on the Packers defense. They boast Aaron Kampman who turned into a sack machine last year, a good young LB, all 11 starters returning and 6 games against NFC North QBs who are either turnover prone (Grossman and Kitna) or just plain raw (Jackson) - Paul Baitinger

 
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